User:Toomai/The SSB4 Reveal Prediction Game

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Everyone knows a SSB4 trailer is coming at E3 2013. So let's put some bets on who you think will show up. Note that this is solely based on the initial reveal and has nothing to do with who will eventually appear in the final game.

Rules[edit]

  • Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
  • Players get 100 Smash Coins.
  • Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
  • If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
  • Whoever wins the most may or may not get some sort of prize. A custom Smash Bros.-related desktop or something seems reasonable, maybe I'll figure something out. Don't expect much, this is just for fun.

Odds[edit]

If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

Veterans[edit]

You may place bets based on which characters will appear.

Mario Luigi Dr. Mario Peach Bowser Yoshi Wario Donkey Kong Diddy Kong Link Young Link1 Toon Link2 Zelda3 Sheik3 Ganondorf Samus4 Zero Suit Samus4 Kirby Meta Knight King Dedede Fox Falco Wolf Pikachu Jigglypuff Pichu Mewtwo5 Pokémon Trainer6 Squirtle6 Ivysaur6 Charizard6 Lucario Captain Falcon Ness Lucas Ice Climbers Marth Roy Ike Mr. Game & Watch Pit Olimar R.O.B. Sonic Snake
1.01 8.0 35.0 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 2.5 1.01 12.0 10.0 4.0 4.5 20.0 1.3 2.0 1.01 1.5 2.5 1.3 8.0 15.0 1.01 12.5 50.0 25.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 15.0 10.0 12.5 11.0 5.0 15.0 40.0 15.0 50.0 3.5 6.0 45.0 7.0 7.0

1 Sensibly-proportioned, non-adult Link.
2 Cell-shaded, big-head Link.
3 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 10.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
4 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 7.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
5 5.0 odds for predicting "new forme appearance".
6 Given odds assume no change. 11.0 odds for predicting the Trainer with at least 1 different Pokémon. 20.0 odds for predicting a Pokémon without the Trainer. 17.0 odds for a different Trainer with the same Pokémon.

Newcomers[edit]

You may place bets of two types:

  1. "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
  2. "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.
Mario series 1.1
Yoshi subseries 2.5
WarioWare subseries 4.0
DK series 1.5
Zelda series 1.4
Metroid series 5.0
Kirby series 2.5
Star Fox series 2.7
Pokémon series 3.0
F-Zero series 25.0
EarthBound series 25.0
Fire Emblem series 6.0
Kid Icarus series 4.0
Pikmin series1 15.0
Sonic series 25.0
Metal Gear series 25.0
New series, first-party 1.5
New series, third-party (Namco) 1.8
New series, third-party (other) 4.0

1 5.0 odds if new character looks to be an Olimar clone/replacement from Pikmin 3.

Trailer details[edit]

Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.

Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" 1.7
Opens with the title logo 1.6
Opens with a couple of characters readying up 1.3
First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu) 1.2
Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes as character-reveal mechanic 3.7
At least one Final Smash shown1 1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2 2.3
Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2 1.6
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move 2.1
What looks to be an altered mechanic 2.0
What looks to be a new mechanic 2.0
Something that appears to be adventure-mode-related 4.5
Contains large explosion 1.5
Has false ending 6.0
Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes to tease future announcements 7.5

1 Or at least most people agree it looks like one (see Wario Waft).
2 As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

Other[edit]

Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.

Shows console/handheld connectivity1 8.9
One of the Flagship Four does not appear 50.0
A veteran has a new Final Smash2 5.6
Link is Hero of Skies 1.4
Gen V Pokémon (playable or Pokéball) 2.0
Gen VI Pokémon (playable or Pokéball) 25.0

1 If it's only described outside the trailer (such as Reggie/Iwata saying "will do such and such" afterwards), it doesn't count.
2 Or at least most people agree it looks like one.

Entries[edit]

You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything).

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.

Bets User Max Potential Total Odds
  • 10 on a character, new series, third-party (other)
  • 10 on a character, new series, first-party
  • 30 on Pit
  • 10 on Samus
  • 10 on Captain Falcon
  • 30 on something that appears to be adventure-mode-related
 Miles (talk) 17:55, 5 June 2013 (EDT) 408.0 1,228.5
  • 50 on newcomer, F-Zero series
  • 30 on looks like a veteran has a new/altered move
  • 10 on at least one final smash shown
  • 10 on Mario
 JamesJH-Heartless.pngHeart 21:59, 5 June 2013 (EDT) 1337.1 74.235
  • 20 on Wario
  • 25 on new mechanic
  • 20 on "Challenger Approaching" for future announcements
  • 20 on new series, first-party
  • 15 on adventure mode-related
 Ceci n’est pas un Smiddle. 04:31, 6 June 2013 (EDT) 329.5 162.0
  • 20 on Silhouettes to tease future announcements
  • 15 on Explosion
  • 20 on Donkey Kong
  • 45 into a savings account
  • Quietly betting against the appearance of Link
    so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later.
 Toast Wii U Logo Transparent.pngltimatumTransparent Swadloon.png 08:46, 6 June 2013 (EDT) 243.5 14.625
  • 40 on Fire Emblem newcomer
  • 20 on large explosion.
  • 25 on third-party newcomer that isn't Namco.
  • 15 on Krystal from Star Fox.
 Omega Tyrant TyranitarMS.png 18:54, 7 June 2013 (EDT) 451 194.4
  • 20 on a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing
  • 10 on a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing
  • 20 on Lucas appearing
  • 20 on a Veteran changing final smashes
  • 5 on new character (third party other)
  • 4 on Sonic new character
  • 4 on Metal Gear new character
  • 4 on F-Zero new character
  • 4 on Earthbound/Mother new character
  • 4 on Mewtwo
  • 5 on new Pikmin character
 Mr. AnonAnon.pngtalk 21:22, 7 June 2013 (EDT) 1217 1,804,687,500,000.0
  • 55 on a new F-Zero character
  • 20 on a Generation V Pokémon appearing
  • 15 on a veteran with a new or altered move
  • 10 on an Adventure-related gameplay mode
 DarkFox01DF01Sig.pngGreat Fox is ready to go. 14:13, 8 June 2013 (EDT) 1491.5 472.5
  • 40 on a new Kirby character
  • 20 on the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer
  • 25 on explosion
  • 15 on Mario
 Starman125 (talk) 12:04, 8 June 2013 (EDT) 176.65 4.545
  • 20 on Marth
  • 25 on New Character, Fire Emblem Series
  • 30 on something that appears to be adventure mode related
  • 25 on Pit
 DoctorPain99 14:00, 8 June 2013 (EDT) 672.5 1,417.5
  • 20 on Mr Game and Watch
  • 20 on Mewtwo (original)
  • 40 on new mechanic
  • 20 on Wolf
 83.82.134.111 14:33, 8 June 2013 (EDT) 1880 37,500.0
  • 25 on First characters shown are Flagship Four
  • 25 on MK
  • 20 on new kirby character
  • 30 on Marth
 LightningBlue405MS.png 16:10, 8 June 2013 (EDT) 567.5 67.5
  • 20 on a new Mario character appearing
  • 20 on a new Pokémon appearing
  • 10 on a new kirby character
  • 25 on a final smash being shown
  • 25 on some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown
 ChuckNorris24.png 17:33, 10 June 2013 (EDT) 364.5 102.795


Comments[edit]

Quick question Toomai: If a Young Link returns with a Final Smash different from Toon Link's Triforce Slash, how much do I get? Mr. AnonAnon.pngtalk 12:01, 8 June 2013 (EDT)

That's a difficult question, since in a sense it depends on whether the final game has one or both secondary Links. If we see both secondary Links in the trailer then I'll count it as a new Final Smash, not a changed one; if only one appears I'll count it as changed as we'll have no other information to go on. Toomai Glittershine ??? The Quiet 13:41, 8 June 2013 (EDT)

Results[edit]

Mario Bowser Donkey Kong Link Samus Kirby Fox Pikachu Pit
1.01 2.5 1.3 1.01 1.3 1.01 1.3 1.01 3.5
Villager (New series, first-party) 1.5
Mega Man (New series, third-party (other)) 4.0
At least one Final Smash shown 1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67% 2.3
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move 2.1
What looks to be an altered mechanic 2.0
Has false ending 6.0

Well looks like pretty much none of us guessed right.

Bets User Results Total
10 character, new series, third-party (other) Miles (talk) Yes 173
10 character, new series, first-party Yes
30 Pit Yes
10 Samus Yes
10 Captain Falcon No
30 something that appears to be adventure-mode-related No
50 newcomer, F-Zero series JamesJH-Heartless.pngHeart No 87.1
30 looks like a veteran has a new/altered move Yes
10 at least one final smash shown Yes
10 Mario Yes
20 Wario Ceci n’est pas un Smiddle. No 30
25 new mechanic No
20 "Challenger Approaching" for future announcements No
20 new series, first-party Yes
15 adventure mode-related No
20 Silhouettes to tease future announcements Toast Wii U Logo Transparent.pngltimatumTransparent Swadloon.png No 71
15 Explosion No
20 Donkey Kong Yes
45 into a savings account Yes
0 Quietly betting against the appearance of Link
so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later.		 No
40 Fire Emblem newcomer Omega Tyrant TyranitarMS.png No 100
20 large explosion. No
25 third-party newcomer that isn't Namco. Yes
15 Krystal from Star Fox. No
20 a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing Mr. AnonAnon.pngtalk No 20
10 a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing No
20 Lucas appearing No
20 a Veteran changing final smashes No
5 new character (third party other) Yes
4 Sonic new character No
4 Metal Gear new character No
4 F-Zero new character No
4 Earthbound/Mother new character No
4 Mewtwo No
5 new Pikmin character No
55 a new F-Zero character DarkFox01DF01Sig.png No 31.5
20 a Generation V Pokémon appearing No
15 a veteran with a new or altered move Yes
10 an Adventure-related gameplay mode No
40 a new Kirby character Starman125 (talk) No 15.15
20 the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer No
25 explosion No
15 Mario Yes
20 Marth DoctorPain99 No 87.5
25 New Character, Fire Emblem Series No
30 something that appears to be adventure mode related No
25 Pit Yes
20 Mr Game and Watch 83.82.134.111 No 0
20 Mewtwo (original) No
40 new mechanic No
20 Wolf No
25 First characters shown are Flagship Four LightningBlue405MS.png No 0
25 MK No
20 new kirby character No
30 Marth No
20 a new Mario character appearing ChuckNorris24.png No 35
20 a new Pokémon appearing No
10 a new kirby character No
25 a final smash being shown Yes
25 some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown No
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