User:Toomai/The SSB4 Reveal Prediction Game

Everyone knows a SSB4 trailer is coming at E3 2013. So let's put some bets on who you think will show up. Note that this is solely based on the initial reveal and has nothing to do with who will eventually appear in the final game.

Rules

• Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
• Players get 100 Smash Coins.
• Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
• If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
• Whoever wins the most may or may not get some sort of prize. A custom Smash Bros.-related desktop or something seems reasonable, maybe I'll figure something out. Don't expect much, this is just for fun.

Odds

If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

Veterans

You may place bets based on which characters will appear.

										1	2	3	3		4	4										5	6	6	6	6
1.01	8.0	35.0	2.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	1.3	2.5	1.01	12.0	10.0	4.0	4.5	20.0	1.3	2.0	1.01	1.5	2.5	1.3	8.0	15.0	1.01	12.5	50.0	25.0	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	15.0	10.0	12.5	11.0	5.0	15.0	40.0	15.0	50.0	3.5	6.0	45.0	7.0	7.0

¹ Sensibly-proportioned, non-adult Link.
² Cell-shaded, big-head Link.
³ 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 10.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
⁴ 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 7.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
⁵ 5.0 odds for predicting "new forme appearance".
⁶ Given odds assume no change. 11.0 odds for predicting the Trainer with at least 1 different Pokémon. 20.0 odds for predicting a Pokémon without the Trainer. 17.0 odds for a different Trainer with the same Pokémon.

Newcomers

You may place bets of two types:

1. "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
2. "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.

Mario series	1.1
Yoshi subseries	2.5
WarioWare subseries	4.0
DK series	1.5
Zelda series	1.4
Metroid series	5.0
Kirby series	2.5
Star Fox series	2.7
Pokémon series	3.0
F-Zero series	25.0
EarthBound series	25.0
Fire Emblem series	6.0
Kid Icarus series	4.0
Pikmin series1	15.0
Sonic series	25.0
Metal Gear series	25.0
New series, first-party	1.5
New series, third-party (Namco)	1.8
New series, third-party (other)	4.0

¹ 5.0 odds if new character looks to be an Olimar clone/replacement from Pikmin 3.

Trailer details

Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.

Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer"	1.7
Opens with the title logo	1.6
Opens with a couple of characters readying up	1.3
First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu)	1.2
Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes as character-reveal mechanic	3.7
At least one Final Smash shown1	1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2	2.3
Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2	1.6
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move	2.1
What looks to be an altered mechanic	2.0
What looks to be a new mechanic	2.0
Something that appears to be adventure-mode-related	4.5
Contains large explosion	1.5
Has false ending	6.0
Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes to tease future announcements	7.5

¹ Or at least most people agree it looks like one (see Wario Waft).
² As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

Other

Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.

Shows console/handheld connectivity1	8.9
One of the Flagship Four does not appear	50.0
A veteran has a new Final Smash2	5.6
Link is Hero of Skies	1.4
Gen V Pokémon (playable or Pokéball)	2.0
Gen VI Pokémon (playable or Pokéball)	25.0

¹ If it's only described outside the trailer (such as Reggie/Iwata saying "will do such and such" afterwards), it doesn't count.
² Or at least most people agree it looks like one.

Entries

You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything).

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.

Bets	User	Max Potential	Total Odds
10 on a character, new series, third-party (other) 10 on a character, new series, first-party 30 on Pit 10 on Samus 10 on Captain Falcon 30 on something that appears to be adventure-mode-related	Miles (talk) 17:55, 5 June 2013 (EDT)	408.0	1,228.5
50 on newcomer, F-Zero series 30 on looks like a veteran has a new/altered move 10 on at least one final smash shown 10 on Mario	JamesHeart 21:59, 5 June 2013 (EDT)	1337.1	74.235
20 on Wario 25 on new mechanic 20 on "Challenger Approaching" for future announcements 20 on new series, first-party 15 on adventure mode-related	Ceci n’est pas un Smiddle. 04:31, 6 June 2013 (EDT)	329.5	162.0
20 on Silhouettes to tease future announcements 15 on Explosion 20 on Donkey Kong 45 into a savings account Quietly betting against the appearance of Link so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later.	Toast ltimatum 08:46, 6 June 2013 (EDT)	243.5	14.625
40 on Fire Emblem newcomer 20 on large explosion. 25 on third-party newcomer that isn't Namco. 15 on Krystal from Star Fox.	Omega Tyrant 18:54, 7 June 2013 (EDT)	451	194.4
20 on a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing 10 on a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing 20 on Lucas appearing 20 on a Veteran changing final smashes 5 on new character (third party other) 4 on Sonic new character 4 on Metal Gear new character 4 on F-Zero new character 4 on Earthbound/Mother new character 4 on Mewtwo 5 on new Pikmin character	Mr. Anontalk 21:22, 7 June 2013 (EDT)	1217	1,804,687,500,000.0
55 on a new F-Zero character 20 on a Generation V Pokémon appearing 15 on a veteran with a new or altered move 10 on an Adventure-related gameplay mode	DarkFox01Great Fox is ready to go. 14:13, 8 June 2013 (EDT)	1491.5	472.5
40 on a new Kirby character 20 on the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer 25 on explosion 15 on Mario	Starman125 (talk) 12:04, 8 June 2013 (EDT)	176.65	4.545
20 on Marth 25 on New Character, Fire Emblem Series 30 on something that appears to be adventure mode related 25 on Pit	DoctorPain99 14:00, 8 June 2013 (EDT)	672.5	1,417.5
20 on Mr Game and Watch 20 on Mewtwo (original) 40 on new mechanic 20 on Wolf	83.82.134.111 14:33, 8 June 2013 (EDT)	1880	37,500.0
25 on First characters shown are Flagship Four 25 on MK 20 on new kirby character 30 on Marth	LightningBlue 16:10, 8 June 2013 (EDT)	567.5	67.5
20 on a new Mario character appearing 20 on a new Pokémon appearing 10 on a new kirby character 25 on a final smash being shown 25 on some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown	ChuckNorris 17:33, 10 June 2013 (EDT)	364.5	102.795

Comments

Quick question Toomai: If a Young Link returns with a Final Smash different from Toon Link's Triforce Slash, how much do I get? Mr. Anontalk 12:01, 8 June 2013 (EDT)

That's a difficult question, since in a sense it depends on whether the final game has one or both secondary Links. If we see both secondary Links in the trailer then I'll count it as a new Final Smash, not a changed one; if only one appears I'll count it as changed as we'll have no other information to go on. Toomai Glittershine The Quiet 13:41, 8 June 2013 (EDT)

Results

1.01	2.5	1.3	1.01	1.3	1.01	1.3	1.01	3.5

Villager (New series, first-party)	1.5
Mega Man (New series, third-party (other))	4.0

At least one Final Smash shown	1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%	2.3
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move	2.1
What looks to be an altered mechanic	2.0
Has false ending	6.0

Well looks like pretty much none of us guessed right.

Bets		User	Results	Total
10	character, new series, third-party (other)	Miles (talk)		173
10	character, new series, first-party
30	Pit
10	Samus
10	Captain Falcon
30	something that appears to be adventure-mode-related
50	newcomer, F-Zero series	JamesHeart		87.1
30	looks like a veteran has a new/altered move
10	at least one final smash shown
10	Mario
20	Wario	Ceci n’est pas un Smiddle.		30
25	new mechanic
20	"Challenger Approaching" for future announcements
20	new series, first-party
15	adventure mode-related
20	Silhouettes to tease future announcements	Toast ltimatum		71
15	Explosion
20	Donkey Kong
45	into a savings account
0	Quietly betting against the appearance of Link so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later.
40	Fire Emblem newcomer	Omega Tyrant		100
20	large explosion.
25	third-party newcomer that isn't Namco.
15	Krystal from Star Fox.
20	a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing	Mr. Anontalk		20
10	a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing
20	Lucas appearing
20	a Veteran changing final smashes
5	new character (third party other)
4	Sonic new character
4	Metal Gear new character
4	F-Zero new character
4	Earthbound/Mother new character
4	Mewtwo
5	new Pikmin character
55	a new F-Zero character	DarkFox01		31.5
20	a Generation V Pokémon appearing
15	a veteran with a new or altered move
10	an Adventure-related gameplay mode
40	a new Kirby character	Starman125 (talk)		15.15
20	the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer
25	explosion
15	Mario
20	Marth	DoctorPain99		87.5
25	New Character, Fire Emblem Series
30	something that appears to be adventure mode related
25	Pit
20	Mr Game and Watch	83.82.134.111		0
20	Mewtwo (original)
40	new mechanic
20	Wolf
25	First characters shown are Flagship Four	LightningBlue		0
25	MK
20	new kirby character
30	Marth
20	a new Mario character appearing	ChuckNorris		35
20	a new Pokémon appearing
10	a new kirby character
25	a final smash being shown
25	some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown