User:Toomai/The SSB4 Reveal Prediction Game
Everyone knows/expects a SSB4 trailer (or at least, screenshots) at E3 2013. So let's put some bets on who you think will show up. Note that this is solely based on the initial reveal and has nothing to do with who will eventually appear in the final game.
Rules
- Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
- Players get 100 Smash Coins.
- Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
- If something you put money on is confirmed, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
- Whoever wins the most may or may not get some sort of prize. A custom Smash Bros.-related desktop or something seems reasonable, maybe I'll figure something out. Don't expect much, this is just for fun.
Odds
If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.
Veterans
You may place bets based on which characters will appear.
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| 1.01 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.01 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.01 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 1.01 | 12.5 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 40.0 | 15.0 | 50.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 45.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
1 Sensibly-proportioned Link.
2 Cell-shaded, big-head Link.
3 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 10.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
4 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 7.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
5 5.0 odds for predicting "new forme appearance".
6 Given odds assume no change. 11.0 odds for predicting the Trainer with at least 1 different Pokémon. 20.0 odds for predicting a Pokémon without the Trainer.
Newcomers
You may place bets of two types:
- "New character from X universe". Odds are as given.
- "Character Q (from X universe)". Odds will be doubled.
| Mario series | 1.1 |
| Yoshi subseries | 2.5 |
| WarioWare subseries | 4.0 |
| DK series | 1.5 |
| Zelda series | 1.4 |
| Metroid series | 5.0 |
| Kirby series | 2.5 |
| Pokémon series | 3.0 |
| F-Zero series | 25.0 |
| EarthBound series | 25.0 |
| Fire Emblem series | 6.0 |
| Kid Icarus series | 4.0 |
| Pikmin series1 | 15.0 |
| Sonic series | 25.0 |
| Metal Gear series | 25.0 |
| New series, first-party | 1.5 |
| New series, third-party (Namco) | 1.8 |
| New series, third-party (other) | 4.0 |
1 5.0 odds if new character looks to be an Olimar clone/replacement from Pikmin 3.
Trailer details
Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout.
| Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" | 1.7 |
| Opens with the title logo | 1.6 |
| Opens with a couple of characters readying up | 1.3 |
| First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu) | 1.2 |
| At least one Final Smash shown1 | 1.4 |
| Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2 | 2.3 |
| Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2 | 1.6 |
| Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move | 2.1 |
| What looks to be an altered mechanic | 2.0 |
| What looks to be a new mechanic | 2.0 |
| Something that appears to be adventure-mode-related | 4.5 |
| Contains large explosion | 1.5 |
| Has false ending | 6.0 |
1 Or at least most people agree it looks like one (see Wario Waft).
2 As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.
Other
Give me a bet that isn't listed above on the talk page and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.
Entries
You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything).
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