Editing Vergeben leaks

The '''Vergeben leaks''' are a series of insider info from the user Vergeben, a well-known leaker with a history of predicting fighting games, about ''[[Super Smash Bros. Ultimate]]''. Having started before [[E3 2018]], Vergeben's leaks were frequently discussed during speculation about the game's roster. Though the veracity of his claims is still debated by some, almost all of them have come to be true, with his only faults being that a [[Square Enix]] character would be the first one revealed as [[downloadable content]] and that Master Chief would be the fifth fighter in Fighters Pass Vol. 2.

On August 18, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76915219?page=1#13 posted on a thread] stating that [[Ken]] from {{uv|Street Fighter}} would appear in the game as an Echo Fighter of {{SSBU|Ryu}}. Four days later, Vergeben made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76928398?page=9#100 post] on a thread, this time stating that a new third-party fighter owned by Square Enix would appear in the game. This led some to believe that Vergeben was simply taking info from the {{H2|List of rumors|NeoGAF leak}}, but the next day he [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76929458#4 claimed] in a thread that he did not know anything about the NeoGAF leak, and that it also contradicted his own information since it claimed there would be no new {{uv|Pokémon}} fighter. He later said that he had heard seven different names for the newcomer and that Square Enix was intentionally sending out multiple names to prevent the real one from leaking.

Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77160319?jumpto=4#4 post] the day after the Fighters Pass was revealed, reiterating that he was confident a character owned by Square Enix would be added and claiming they would be the first DLC character, while also restating that ''Minecraft'' content would be coming in some form. Additionally, he stated that Senjougahara__Hitagi, a contact of his, heard that the ''Minecraft'' content would be the game's protagonist [[Steve]] as a playable character. He also shared that Hitagi's sources claimed there had been talks of a ''{{iw|wikipedia|Granblue Fantasy}}'' newcomer as DLC, most likely [https://gbf.wiki/Katalina Katalina]. Hitagi initially verified the Steve and Katalina claims, but she later [https://www.reddit.com/user/Senjougahara__Hitagi/comments/9x27hs/just_a_quick_update_not_answering_questions/ retracted the Katalina claim], saying that the "deal" was not related to ''Smash''. On November 21, Hitagi again stated that Steve was definitely coming, but also announced that she had given up on trying to find out about the rest of the characters, as the ones she heard about were starting to look like red herrings, including any Square Enix fighters, thus bringing Vergeben's claims into doubt as well.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/u_Senjougahara__Hitagi/comments/9yzt7h/comment/ea5urmk</ref>

At The Game Awards 2018, {{SSBU|Joker}} from Atlus and Sega's ''Persona 5'' was revealed to be the first DLC fighter, directly contradicting Vergeben's claim that the first DLC character would be a Square Enix character. Vergeben later justified this discrepancy by claiming that Joker had been moved up to the top of the release schedule at the last minute.

On December 30th, 2018, Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77344587?jumpto=48#48 post] clarifying that the Square Enix newcomer was most likely a ''[[Dragon Quest]]'' character, namely [[Hero#Dragon Quest III|Erdrick]], [[Hero#Dragon Quest XI|Luminary]], or [[Slime]]. This correlated with a [[List of rumors#5channel_Dragon_Quest_leak|separate alleged leak]] originating from [https://krsw.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/ghard/1544370354/137 5channel], claiming that Erdrick was the Square Enix character, and would feature the Luminary as an alternate costume, while the Slime would appear on a ''Dragon Quest'' stage. He later asserted on April 25, 2019 that Erdrick was [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77661676?jumpto=72#72 definitely in the Fighters Pass]. He also reiterated that [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77661676?jumpto=104#104 ''Minecraft'' content of some kind was being added to the game], but that it did not necessarily mean that Steve would be playable.

Similar to the [[Gematsu leaks]] for ''Smash 4'' during E3 2013, the confirmation during E3 2018 of several of Vergeben's major claims sparked a large amount of discussion surrounding them and their authenticity. Believers of the leak cited Vergeben's history of accurate insider info, while ascribing any potential and future falsehoods to the aforementioned fact that Vergeben himself was not an insider. Detractors were wary of Vergeben's potential to be a repeat of the Gematsu leaks, with accurate information at the start but less notable or outright wrong information towards the end. Another camp accused him of stealing information from other leaks, though many of the purported examples were, in fact, copycats of Vergeben.

The two predictions that gave Vergeben most of his credibility were {{SSBU|Isabelle}} and {{SSBU|Incineroar}}, for very few other rumors had suggested their inclusions. Incineroar, in particular, was largely exclusive to Vergeben: many credited him with popularizing its inclusion, with most other leakers suggesting Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, [[Tapu Koko]], or {{iw|bulbapedia|Zeraora}} as the new Pokémon fighter. Furthermore, a large portion of the community had chosen to believe the Grinch Leak despite Vergeben adamantly denying it, and thus he was vindicated when the Grinch Leak was debunked by Incineroar's reveal.

His claim that the first DLC character was a Square Enix character, the first claim of his to have been proven incorrect, provoked skepticism about his information. Vergeben's claim that Joker had been moved up the schedule at the last minute was largely accepted, in particular due to confirmation that [[Masahiro Sakurai]] had been requested by Nintendo last minute to prepare a trailer for Joker's reveal, leaving him unable to demonstrate any gameplay. Skeptics pointed out that the leak by definition was not infallible due to making a completely wrong assumption, though this argument was dismissed as a {{iw|wikipedia|fallacy of composition}} that did not degrade any of Vergeben's other claims.

Vergeben's claims leading up to the reveal of the final Fighters Pass Volume 1 character drew large amounts of skepticism and criticism, as he shot down a vast majority of popularly speculated characters without outright stating the character's identity. In addition to this, the fact that the source was uncertain about KOS-MOS, a Bandai Namco character, despite the source apparently debunking a Bandai Namco character beforehand, drew more skepticism. Criticism increased after Vergeben walked back several of his disconfirmations on December 7; Vergeben justified this by stating that he had misunderstood his source, but many refused to accept this explanation. After The Game Awards passed without an announcement, many claimed that this definitively proved Vergeben was wrong, despite the original claim for a TGA announcement not coming from him. He also garnered much criticism when he claimed to have been told the character was {{SSBU|Byleth}} fifteen minutes before the presentation but did not reveal this until after the presentation began; however, his accuracy in predicting the Mii Fighter costumes that had not yet been revealed in the presentation seem to suggest that he may have had inside information after all.

The confirmation of most of his claims led several rumors to be falsely attributed to him, some of which were used by detractors to argue that Vergeben was unreliable. In these cases, an account would surface claiming to belong to Vergeben, which he would then shoot down. This became common enough that Vergeben began listing all of his accounts in his signature on GameFAQs with the note that "if you see [him] elsewhere (example: 4chan or Twitter) it's not [him]". Leading up to the reveal of {{SSBU|Min Min}}, [https://www.dexerto.com/smash/prominent-smash-ultimate-leaker-shares-new-info-on-arms-dlc-fighter-1377550 claims] surfaced that Vergeben had privately emerged from his months-long silence with information on the ''ARMS'' fighter, claiming it would, in the style of {{SSBU|Hero}}, include [[Spring Man]], [[Ribbon Girl]], Min Min, and possibly others as alternate costumes, among other claims about games besides ''Super Smash Bros.'' However, the claims came without any supporting evidence and Vergeben never publicly backed them, leaving it doubtful that they truly originated from him.

*The first character in Fighters Pass Vol. 1 would be a character owned by [[Square Enix]].

*The fifth character in Fighters Pass Vol. 2 would be Master Chief from ''Halo''.

[[Category:Leaks]]