View source for Vergeben leaks

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The '''Vergeben leaks''' are a series of insider info from the user Vergeben, a well-known leaker with a history of predicting fighting games, about ''[[Super Smash Bros. Ultimate]]''. Having started before [[E3 2018]], Vergeben's leaks were frequently discussed during speculation about the game's roster. Though the veracity of his claims is still debated by some, almost all of them have come to be true, with his only faults being that a [[Square Enix]] character would be the first one revealed as [[downloadable content]] and that Master Chief would be the fifth fighter in Fighters Pass Vol. 2.

==Base game leaks==
===Spring 2018===
[[File:Vergeben Ridley leak.jpeg|thumb|300px|Vergeben leaking Ridley's inclusion.]]
[[File:Vergeben Simon Leak.jpeg|thumb|300px|Vergeben leaking the Ice Climbers, Simon and the ''SSB4'' cast.]]
[[File:Vergeben Snake Leak.jpeg|thumb|300px|Vergeben leaking Snake.]]
[[File:Vergeben Minecraft Rumour.jpeg|thumb|left|300px|Vergeben mentioning {{uv|Minecraft}} representation.]]
On March 16, 2018, eight days after the initial reveal of the then-untitled ''Super Smash Bros. Ultimate'', Vergeben posted [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-for-nintendo-switch/76421310 a thread] on GameFAQs, claiming that [[Ridley]] would be a newcomer and that the new ''Smash'' game would be an entirely new game instead of a port of an existing one. Exactly two months later, on May 16, Vergeben posted another thread on GameFAQs, claiming he had a reliable source with information on the character roster. Specifically, he said that Ridley and [[Simon Belmont]] would be newcomers and that the entire roster from ''[[Super Smash Bros. 4]]'' would return with no cuts, with the {{SSBU|Ice Climbers}} and {{SSBU|Snake}} also returning after being cut from ''SSB4''. Vergeben also claimed that the popular [[Microsoft]]-owned indie game {{uv|Minecraft}} would be represented in some form.

The lack of cuts from ''SSB4''{{'}}s roster, the return of Snake and the Ice Climbers, and the addition of Ridley were all confirmed during Nintendo’s E3 2018 Direct, which officially unveiled ''Super Smash Bros. Ultimate''. This left Simon Belmont and ''Minecraft'' representation Vergeben's only unconfirmed claims. In response to a GameFAQs post asking about Simon, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76694154/903083982 replied] that there would still be more things announced prior to the game's release, suggesting that Simon would be revealed at a later date.

===Summer 2018===
After Nintendo's E3 2018 presentation, Vergeben [https://www.reddit.com/r/Kappa/comments/8k0li1/comment/e0pemqo claimed on Reddit] that there were at least “half a dozen newcomers” left to be revealed, but he didn’t know who any of them were aside from Simon. He made [https://web.archive.org/web/20180728120827/https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76848606 another thread on GameFAQs], which has since been deleted, on July 28, reasserting Simon and adding [[Isabelle]] to his claims. A [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76866145/906230784 fourth GameFAQs thread he posted on August 3] claimed that a Pokémon from Generation VII would be on the roster and that it was not {{pkmn|Decidueye}}, {{pkmn|Lycanroc}}, or [[Mimikyu]].<ref>[https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76869597/906250185 If Vergetbean is right, who's it going to be? - GameFAQs]</ref> Simon Belmont was officially revealed in the ''Super Smash Bros. Ultimate'' Direct on August 8. The same Direct also disconfirmed Mimikyu by instead revealing it as a new [[Poké Ball]] Pokémon. Additionally, {{SSBU|Isabelle}} was revealed as a newcomer at the end of the September 13 Nintendo Direct, confirming his claims that she would be playable.

===Fall 2018===
On August 18, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76915219?page=1#13 posted on a thread] stating that [[Ken]] from {{uv|Street Fighter}} would appear in the game as an Echo Fighter of {{SSBU|Ryu}}. Four days later, Vergeben made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76928398?page=9#100 post] on a thread, this time stating that a new third-party fighter owned by Square Enix would appear in the game. This led some to believe that Vergeben was simply taking info from the {{H2|List of rumors|NeoGAF leak}}, but the next day he [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76929458#4 claimed] in a thread that he did not know anything about the NeoGAF leak, and that it also contradicted his own information since it claimed there would be no new {{uv|Pokémon}} fighter. He later said that he had heard seven different names for the newcomer and that Square Enix was intentionally sending out multiple names to prevent the real one from leaking.

In another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77008096 thread by Vergeben] he asserted that {{SSBU|Incineroar}} was the Generation VII Pokémon that would appear as a newcomer. He also addressed the popular "Box Theory", which stated that there would only be two more fighters in the base game as the box art for the Special Edition of the game had room for only two more fighters. Though he assured that Incineroar and Ken were in the game, he also noted that his source for the Square Enix newcomer had never been wrong in the past. In the debate surrounding the [[List of rumors#"The Grinch leak"|Grinch leak]], Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77149243?jumpto=224#224 post] on October 31, suggesting that the Grinch Leak was fake as his information had Isaac as an Assist Trophy rather than a playable character.

On November 1, 2018, the final Nintendo Direct for the game revealed {{SSBU|Ken}} and Incineroar as the last fighters for the base game, as well as revealing Isaac to be an Assist Trophy, confirming Vergeben's claims about them. It was also announced in this Direct that there would be additional fighters as paid DLC, which had the potential to include the Square Enix newcomer and the ''Minecraft'' content, the only two remaining unconfirmed claims.
{{clr}}

==DLC leaks==
===Pre-Fighters Pass Vol. 1===
On September 16, 2018, Vergeben claimed the game would have post-launch content, allowing for his claim of a Square Enix newcomer to still be true in the event that Box Theory was proven correct, which it eventually was by the November 1 Direct.

Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77160319?jumpto=4#4 post] the day after the Fighters Pass was revealed, reiterating that he was confident a character owned by Square Enix would be added and claiming they would be the first DLC character, while also restating that ''Minecraft'' content would be coming in some form. Additionally, he stated that Senjougahara__Hitagi, a contact of his, heard that the ''Minecraft'' content would be the game's protagonist [[Steve]] as a playable character. He also shared that Hitagi's sources claimed there had been talks of a ''{{iw|wikipedia|Granblue Fantasy}}'' newcomer as DLC, most likely [https://gbf.wiki/Katalina Katalina]. Hitagi initially verified the Steve and Katalina claims, but she later [https://www.reddit.com/user/Senjougahara__Hitagi/comments/9x27hs/just_a_quick_update_not_answering_questions/ retracted the Katalina claim], saying that the "deal" was not related to ''Smash''. On November 21, Hitagi again stated that Steve was definitely coming, but also announced that she had given up on trying to find out about the rest of the characters, as the ones she heard about were starting to look like red herrings, including any Square Enix fighters, thus bringing Vergeben's claims into doubt as well.<ref>https://www.reddit.com/r/u_Senjougahara__Hitagi/comments/9yzt7h/comment/ea5urmk</ref>

On November 24, another insider by the name of Ryce [https://www.resetera.com/posts/15315308/ stated] that Vergeben was most likely misled about Steve being a DLC character since this claim was first made long before the DLC choices were set in stone. Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77233375?jumpto=97#97 post] agreeing with Ryce and stating that he heard that ''Minecraft'' would still be represented with a boss battle, despite [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77233375/912971572 acknowledging] the fact that nobody had found any references to ''Minecraft'' in the datamine of the full game. However, this did not contradict Hitagi's claim of Steve being DLC.

===Fighters Pass Vol. 1===
At The Game Awards 2018, {{SSBU|Joker}} from Atlus and Sega's ''Persona 5'' was revealed to be the first DLC fighter, directly contradicting Vergeben's claim that the first DLC character would be a Square Enix character. Vergeben later justified this discrepancy by claiming that Joker had been moved up to the top of the release schedule at the last minute.

On December 30th, 2018, Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77344587?jumpto=48#48 post] clarifying that the Square Enix newcomer was most likely a ''[[Dragon Quest]]'' character, namely [[Hero#Dragon Quest III|Erdrick]], [[Hero#Dragon Quest XI|Luminary]], or [[Slime]]. This correlated with a [[List of rumors#5channel_Dragon_Quest_leak|separate alleged leak]] originating from [https://krsw.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/ghard/1544370354/137 5channel], claiming that Erdrick was the Square Enix character, and would feature the Luminary as an alternate costume, while the Slime would appear on a ''Dragon Quest'' stage. He later asserted on April 25, 2019 that Erdrick was [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77661676?jumpto=72#72 definitely in the Fighters Pass]. He also reiterated that [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77661676?jumpto=104#104 ''Minecraft'' content of some kind was being added to the game], but that it did not necessarily mean that Steve would be playable.

On June 6th, 2019, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77761932/922851981 claimed] that {{SSBU|Banjo & Kazooie}} had a "99% chance" of being part of the Fighters Pass. He also once again reaffirmed his claim that ''Minecraft'' would be represented through DLC, though he was still unsure if Steve would be playable. Banjo & Kazooie were confirmed in the E3 2019 Direct along with Erdrick, albeit as a skin for {{SSBU|Hero}}, something Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77780614?jumpto=21#21 stated] he took great joy in as he was not informed of multiple ''Dragon Quest'' skins, and that this also explained why he kept hearing Luminary along with Erdrick. He later [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77968128?jumpto=282#282 dismissed] a popular 4chan rumor that the 4th fighter in the Fighters Pass would be a female character with a "mecha".

On September 1st, 2019, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77980705?jumpto=32#32 claimed] that a playable character owned by SNK Corporation would appear in the game and that he had heard one potential name of the character. A day later, he made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77982719 thread] with a gif of [[Terry Bogard]] from ''Fatal Fury'' and later [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77982719/926880910 claimed] that Terry would be a DLC character. Terry was later confirmed in a Nintendo Direct on September 4th, 2019.

Following the reveal and release of Terry, Vergeben dismissed several rumors about the identity of the last character in the Fighters Pass:
*He [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78102411?jumpto=107#107 claimed] on October 24 that the final fighter would not be {{iw|wikipedia|Ryu Hayabusa}} from the ''{{iw|wikipedia|Ninja Gaiden}}'' series, though he claimed that there was some possibility for Ryu to be added in later DLC outside of the first Fighters Pass.
*He later claimed that the final character in Fighters Pass Volume 1 would not be:
**Scorpion from the ''{{iw|wikipedia|Mortal Kombat}}'' series on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78120584?jumpto=427#427 November 4].
**[[Geno]] from ''Super Mario RPG'' or {{iw|wikipedia|Doomguy}} from the ''{{iw|wikipedia|Doom}}'' series on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78139461?page=2#27 November 10].
**{{iw|wikipedia|Gordon Freeman}} from the ''{{iw|wikipedia|Half-Life}}'' series on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78195785?jumpto=41#41 November 25].
**A character owned by {{iw|wikipedia|Nippon Ichi Software}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78197649?page=1#14 November 26].
**A character owned by either {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Ubisoft}} or {{iw|wikipedia|Nihon Falcom}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78203375?jumpto=27 November 27].
**A character owned by either [[Bandai Namco]] or {{iw|wikipedia|Level-5|company}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78213641?jumpto=84#84 November 30].
*He posted on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78218788?jumpto=51#51 December 6] that the final character was definitely not owned by [[Capcom]], [[Sega]], [[Konami]], {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Arc System Works}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Spike Chunsoft}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Marvelous}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Epic Games}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Touhou Project}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Bethesda Softworks}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Koei Tecmo}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Activision}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Blizzard Entertainment}}, or [[Nintendo]], most likely not from [[Microsoft]] or [[Square Enix]], and definitely not a character already in the game as an Assist Trophy or spirit.

On December 7th, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78233689?jumpto=52#52 stated] that he would try to check if the final Fighters Pass Vol. 1 character was owned by HAL Laboratory, Game Freak, Intelligent Systems, SNK, or Atlus. [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954 A different post] he made later the same day clarified that the list of companies he had posted the day before was incorrect, and that only the specific characters he listed next to the companies' names were disconfirmed. The characters he disconfirmed in this post were Arle Nadja from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Puyo Puyo}}'', Sakura from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Sakura Wars}}'', Crash Bandicoot, Tracer from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Overwatch}}'', Reimu Hakurei from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Touhou}}'', and Kat from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Gravity Rush}}''.

On December 8th, he made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954/931304870 post] claiming that the final character was not [[Sora]] from {{uv|Kingdom Hearts}}, Sol Badguy from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Guilty Gear}}'', Ragna from ''{{iw|wikipedia|BlazBlue}}'', Billy or Jimmy Lee from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Double Dragon}}'', [[Dante]] from {{uvm3|Devil May Cry}}, Phoenix Wright, [[Sir Arthur]] from {{uvm3|Ghosts 'n Goblins}}, Amaterasu from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Okami}}'', the [[Monster Hunter]], Sam Porter Bridges from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Death Stranding}}'', Geralt of Rivia from ''{{iw|wikipedia|The Witcher|video game series}}'', Monokuma from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Danganronpa}}'', Kratos from ''{{iw|wikipedia|God of War|franchise}}'', or Master Chief from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Halo|franchise}}''. In the same post, Vergeben noted the confusion over his source's uncertainty about it being {{iw|xenoserieswiki|KOS-MOS}} from ''{{iw|xenoserieswiki|Xenosaga}}'', since they had denied that the character was owned by Bandai Namco: he said this was likely because his source had mistaken KOS-MOS for a [[Monolith Soft]] character. However, the 4chan post that suggested KOS-MOS, claiming she would be revealed during {{iw|wikipedia|The Game Awards 2019}}, was later debunked as The Game Awards aired with no new announcements regarding ''Smash''.

On December 16th, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78258412?jumpto=13#13 claimed] that the final Fighters Pass character was not Reiji Arisu and Xiaomu from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Namco × Capcom}}'' and the ''{{iw|wikipedia|Project X Zone}}'' series or Morrigan from ''{{iw|wikipedia|Darkstalkers}}''.

Shortly before the presentation that revealed [[Byleth]] on January 16, 2020, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78333254?jumpto=5#5 claimed] that the final character was not KOS-MOS and reiterated his claims that it was not Dante, Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, Monster Hunter, Sir Arthur, Morrigan, or Leon Kennedy from {{uvm3|Resident Evil}}. During the presentation itself, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78333254?jumpto=219#219 posted] that his source had told him it was Byleth shortly before the presentation began and stated that the Mii Fighter costumes would be [[Altair]], [[Cuphead]], a [[Rabbid]] hat, and two Mega Man outfits. He [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78333254?jumpto=221#221 later] provided a timestamped screenshot showing that this message arrived fifteen minutes before the presentation began. Although this screenshot could easily have been edited, his initial post came before the point in the presentation where the Mii Fighter costumes were revealed, which would indicate the screenshot and therefore his source's information was true.

===Fighters Pass Vol. 2===
After a long period of silence, {{SSBU|Steve}} was announced as the second fighter in Fighters Pass Vol. 2, aligning with Vergeben's longstanding claim of ''Minecraft'' content. In regards to how it came over two years after his initial claim which was long before the second Fighters Pass was even conceived, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/79011455?jumpto=103#103 theorized] that Steve may have been in the works for as long as three years and repeatedly scrapped and revitalized due to the fighter’s complexity (as Sakurai mentioned during the character's initial announcement). This is supported by a statement by a former [[Mojang Studios]] employee [https://twitter.com/Kappische/status/1311773807175180296 saying] that discussions surrounding adding ''Minecraft'' to ''Smash'' started "at least 5 years ago" -- roughly when ''Ultimate'' entered development.

When asked for an update on Ryu Hayabusa's chances, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/79011455?jumpto=162#162 stated] that he knew for a fact Nintendo met with Koei Tecmo to discuss ''Super Smash Bros.'' and that he would be surprised if nothing came of it, but he was not able to confirm if Ryu Hayabusa or any other Koei Tecmo character was indeed coming. On January 5th 2021, a spirit event for ''{{iw|wikipedia|Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity}}'', a Koei Tecmo developed game, was announced, presumably being part of - if not the entirety of - what Nintendo had discussed for with Koei Tecmo. Another spirit from Koei Tecmo would also arrive, Sophia, from their {{uv|Persona}} spin-off, ''{{iw|wikipedia|Persona 5 Strikers}}''.

Another long period of silence preceded his next post, which was made hours before [[E3|E3 2021]] and on Reddit instead of GameFAQs, implicating [https://www.reddit.com/user/DasVergeben/comments/o0bery/cortana_tell_me_whos_coming_to_smash/h1ub8x3/?context=3 Master Chief] as a newcomer. However, while {{SSBU|Kazuya}} was announced in the E3 Nintendo Direct on June 15th, Master Chief was not. Later that day, 343 Industries community director Brian Jarrard [https://twitter.com/ske7ch/status/1404831410041409538 stated on Twitter] that he was not aware of any plans to put Master Chief in the game; eight days later, Vergeben acknowledged the error [https://www.reddit.com/user/DasVergeben/comments/o6alh2/update_on_things/ on Reddit] (along with some other false information he had suggested), and also noted that he had cut ties with one of his "oldest sources."

Sora was revealed to be the final ''Ultimate'' newcomer on October 5th, 2021, officially disconfirming Master Chief as a potential newcomer. Vergeben's last public statement on ''Ultimate'' prior to the reveal was [https://www.reddit.com/r/SmashBrosUltimate/comments/ptwn9b/thought_id_share_my_image_that_compiles_all_of/he0fvqq/ made on September 23rd], in which he stated that he hadn't "heard anything at all about who the final character is."

==Reception==
[[File:Vergeben denying Verge claim.png|thumb|300px|Vergeben denying that he made any comment on the SNK fighter rumor.]]
Leading up to the reveal of ''Ultimate'', Vergeben was derided for having previously shared supposed leaks for other games that were later proven false. His defenders, then in the minority, argued that he had nearly an equal amount of leaks that had come true and that the reason for his inaccuracy was that he himself is not an insider, but instead has connections to insiders and sometimes hears rumors from unreliable sources. All information that made its way to the public did not come from Vergeben directly, but rather disseminated similarly to a game of [[wikipedia:Chinese whispers|telephone]], with his sources going to him and him going to the community. As a result, several details were often misinterpreted or lost in transmission before they could be discussed.

Similar to the [[Gematsu leaks]] for ''Smash 4'' during E3 2013, the confirmation during E3 2018 of several of Vergeben's major claims sparked a large amount of discussion surrounding them and their authenticity. Believers of the leak cited Vergeben's history of accurate insider info, while ascribing any potential and future falsehoods to the aforementioned fact that Vergeben himself was not an insider. Detractors were wary of Vergeben's potential to be a repeat of the Gematsu leaks, with accurate information at the start but less notable or outright wrong information towards the end. Another camp accused him of stealing information from other leaks, though many of the purported examples were, in fact, copycats of Vergeben.

The two predictions that gave Vergeben most of his credibility were {{SSBU|Isabelle}} and {{SSBU|Incineroar}}, for very few other rumors had suggested their inclusions. Incineroar, in particular, was largely exclusive to Vergeben: many credited him with popularizing its inclusion, with most other leakers suggesting Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, [[Tapu Koko]], or {{pkmn|Zeraora}} as the new Pokémon fighter. Furthermore, a large portion of the community had chosen to believe the Grinch Leak despite Vergeben adamantly denying it, and thus he was vindicated when the Grinch Leak was debunked by Incineroar's reveal.

His claim that the first DLC character was a Square Enix character, the first claim of his to have been proven incorrect, provoked skepticism about his information. Vergeben's claim that Joker had been moved up the schedule at the last minute was largely accepted, in particular due to confirmation that [[Masahiro Sakurai]] had been requested by Nintendo last minute to prepare a trailer for Joker's reveal, leaving him unable to demonstrate any gameplay. Skeptics pointed out that the leak by definition was not infallible due to making a completely wrong assumption, though this argument was dismissed as a {{iw|wikipedia|fallacy of composition}} that did not degrade any of Vergeben's other claims.

Though his claims for Hero and Terry came to be true, doubt was cast upon them due to several other rumors making similar claims. For Hero, multiple posts including the aforementioned 5channel leak suggested that ''Dragon Quest'' representation would come in some form, well before Vergeben starting making similar claims himself. He had also used the name "Erdrick" instead of "Luminary" like these rumors, despite the Luminary being the default costume for Hero and Vergeben mentioning several times that he kept hearing the name from his sources. For Terry, the [[Leak#Nintendo_of_Europe_site_SNK_fighter_leak|webpage that first triggered speculation about an SNK fighter]] came before Vergeben made any claims about an SNK character, even denying allegations about commenting on the matter.

Vergeben's claims leading up to the reveal of the final Fighters Pass Volume 1 character drew large amounts of skepticism and criticism, as he shot down a vast majority of popularly speculated characters without outright stating the character's identity. In addition to this, the fact that the source was uncertain about KOS-MOS, a Bandai Namco character, despite the source apparently debunking a Bandai Namco character beforehand, drew more skepticism. Criticism increased after Vergeben walked back several of his disconfirmations on December 7; Vergeben justified this by stating that he had misunderstood his source, but many refused to accept this explanation. After The Game Awards passed without an announcement, many claimed that this definitively proved Vergeben was wrong, despite the original claim for a TGA announcement not coming from him. He also garnered much criticism when he claimed to have been told the character was {{SSBU|Byleth}} fifteen minutes before the presentation but did not reveal this until after the presentation began; however, his accuracy in predicting the Mii Fighter costumes that had not yet been revealed in the presentation seem to suggest that he may have had inside information after all.

The confirmation of most of his claims led several rumors to be falsely attributed to him, some of which were used by detractors to argue that Vergeben was unreliable. In these cases, an account would surface claiming to belong to Vergeben, which he would then shoot down. This became common enough that Vergeben began listing all of his accounts in his signature on GameFAQs with the note that "if you see [him] elsewhere (example: 4chan or Twitter) it's not [him]". Leading up to the reveal of {{SSBU|Min Min}}, [https://www.dexerto.com/smash/prominent-smash-ultimate-leaker-shares-new-info-on-arms-dlc-fighter-1377550 claims] surfaced that Vergeben had privately emerged from his months-long silence with information on the ''ARMS'' fighter, claiming it would, in the style of {{SSBU|Hero}}, include [[Spring Man]], [[Ribbon Girl]], Min Min, and possibly others as alternate costumes, among other claims about games besides ''Super Smash Bros.'' However, the claims came without any supporting evidence and Vergeben never publicly backed them, leaving it doubtful that they truly originated from him.

The reveal of ''Minecraft'' content coming as part of Challenger Pack 7, well after Vergeben made his initial claim about it, drew divided opinions on its veracity. Those who supported Vergeben cited comments made by other insiders and a former Mojang employee that talks to get ''Minecraft'' content into ''Smash'' had occurred long before the game had released and the second Fighters Pass was even conceived, giving credence to Vergeben's theory that the character being scrapped was the reason it had not come when he claimed it would. Those skeptical of Vergeben noted that, by its nature, it is impossible to prove whether or not these were the talks that Vergeben had been referring to or if he even knew about them at all, even when Hitagi, the one who initially claimed Steve would be coming, ultimately turned out to be correct as well.

Although most agree that Vergeben must have had at least some legitimate insider information, some skeptics continue to insist that Vergeben stole all of his information from other leaks or point to the only two complete falsehoods in his posts as evidence for his claims being fake or even lucky guesses. Ultimately, Vergeben cemented himself as the most reliable source of information regarding leaks, whose mistakes are believed to result from believing an unreliable source, misunderstanding a report, or having his sources fall for false information.

==Verdict==
===Proven===
The following are the claims made by Vergeben that came true:
*The game would be a brand new entry rather than a port of ''Smash 4'', but that it would reuse assets from said game.
*{{SSBU|Ridley}}, {{SSBU|Simon}}, {{SSBU|Isabelle}}, {{SSBU|Incineroar}}, and {{SSBU|Ken}} would appear as newcomers, with Ridley being revealed at E3 2018 and Ken appearing as an [[Echo Fighter]] of {{SSBU|Ryu}}.
*The entire roster of ''[[Super Smash Bros. 4]]'' would return, as well as {{SSBU|Snake}} and the {{SSBU|Ice Climbers}} returning after being cut in ''Smash 4''.
*"Over half a dozen" newcomers would appear in the base game (including Echo Fighters, there were 11).
*Decidueye, Lycanroc, [[Mimikyu]], and [[Isaac]] would not be playable, with Isaac appearing instead as an [[Assist Trophy]].
*The game would receive {{SSBU|downloadable content}} after release.
*{{SSBU|Banjo & Kazooie}} and either Luminary or Erdrick (Luminary and Erdrick both being present under the banner of {{SSBU|Hero}}) would be part of the Fighters Pass Vol. 1.
*{{SSBU|Terry}} would appear as the fourth character in the Fighters Pass Vol. 1.
*The final fighter in Fighters Pass Vol. 1 would not be from {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Ubisoft}}, [[Bandai Namco]], {{iw|wikipedia|Level-5|company}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Nippon Ichi Software}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Nihon Falcom}}, [[Capcom]], [[Sega]], [[Konami]], {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Arc System Works}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Spike Chunsoft}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Marvelous}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Epic Games}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Team Shanghai Alice}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Bethesda Softworks}}, {{h2|List of companies with minor representation|Koei Tecmo}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Activision}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Blizzard Entertainment}}, {{iw|wikipedia|NetherRealm Studio}}, {{iw|wikipedia|Valve Corporation}}, [[Microsoft]], [[Square Enix]], or {{iw|wikipedia|Sony Interactive Entertainment}}.
*The Mii Fighter costumes releasing with {{SSBU|Byleth}} would be [[Altaïr]], [[Cuphead]], a [[Rabbid]] hat, and two Mega Man costumes.
*{{uv|Minecraft}} content would be coming to ''Ultimate'' as DLC and had been in the works since well before launch.
*Koei Tecmo content would be added to ''Ultimate'' during the course of Fighters Pass Vol. 2.

===Disproven===
The following are the claims made by Vergeben that were false:
*The first character in Fighters Pass Vol. 1 would be a character owned by [[Square Enix]].
*The fifth character in Fighters Pass Vol. 2 would be Master Chief from ''Halo''.
<!-- Do not add that Vergeben claimed the final Fighters Pass Vol.1 character would not be a Nintendo or Intelligent Systems rep; Vergeben retracted this claim prior to Byleth's reveal, and this fact was mentioned earlier in the article.-->

==See also==
*[[List of leaks]]
**[[Gematsu leaks]]
**[[ESRB leak]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

[[Category:Unofficial lingo]]
[[Category:Super Smash Bros. Ultimate]]
[[Category:Leaks]]