Editing User:Toomai/The SSB4 Reveal Prediction Game

Everyone knows a SSB4 trailer is coming at E3 2013. So let's put some bets on who you think will show up. Note that this is solely based on the initial reveal and has nothing to do with who will eventually appear in the final game.

==Rules==
*'''Disclaimer:''' This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
*Players get 100 Smash Coins.
*Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
*If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
*Whoever wins the most may or may not get some sort of prize. A custom Smash Bros.-related desktop or something seems reasonable, maybe I'll figure something out. Don't expect much, this is just for fun.

==Odds==
If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

===Veterans===
You may place bets based on which characters will appear.

{|class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|-valign="bottom"<!--otherwise the footnote chars look out of line-->
|{{Head|Mario|s=20px}}||{{Head|Luigi|s=20px}}||{{Head|Dr. Mario|s=20px}}||{{Head|Peach|s=20px}}||{{Head|Bowser|s=20px}}||{{Head|Yoshi|s=20px}}||{{Head|Wario|s=20px}}||{{Head|Donkey Kong|s=20px}}||{{Head|Diddy Kong|s=20px}}||{{Head|Link|s=20px}}||{{Head|Young Link|s=20px}}<sup>1</sup>||{{Head|Toon Link|s=20px}}<sup>2</sup>||{{Head|Zelda|s=20px}}<sup>3</sup>||{{Head|Sheik|s=20px}}<sup>3</sup>||{{Head|Ganondorf|s=20px}}||{{Head|Samus|s=20px}}<sup>4</sup>||{{Head|Zero Suit Samus|s=20px}}<sup>4</sup>||{{Head|Kirby|s=20px}}||{{Head|Meta Knight|s=20px}}||{{Head|King Dedede|s=20px}}||{{Head|Fox|s=20px}}||{{Head|Falco|s=20px}}||{{Head|Wolf|s=20px}}||{{Head|Pikachu|s=20px}}||{{Head|Jigglypuff|s=20px}}||{{Head|Pichu|s=20px}}||{{Head|Mewtwo|s=20px}}<sup>5</sup>||{{Head|Pokémon Trainer|s=20px}}<sup>6</sup>||{{Head|Squirtle|s=20px}}<sup>6</sup>||{{Head|Ivysaur|s=20px}}<sup>6</sup>||{{Head|Charizard|s=20px}}<sup>6</sup>||{{Head|Lucario|s=20px}}||{{Head|Captain Falcon|s=20px}}||{{Head|Ness|s=20px}}||{{Head|Lucas|s=20px}}||{{Head|Ice Climbers|s=20px}}||{{Head|Marth|s=20px}}||{{Head|Roy|s=20px}}||{{Head|Ike|s=20px}}||{{Head|Mr. Game & Watch|s=20px}}||{{Head|Pit|s=20px}}||{{Head|Olimar|s=20px}}||{{Head|R.O.B.|s=20px}}||{{Head|Sonic|s=20px}}||{{Head|Snake|s=20px}}
|-
|1.01||8.0||35.0||2.5||2.5||1.3||1.6||1.3||2.5||1.01||12.0||10.0||4.0||4.5||20.0||1.3||2.0||1.01||1.5||2.5||1.3||8.0||15.0||1.01||12.5||50.0||25.0||6.5||6.5||6.5||6.5||15.0||10.0||12.5||11.0||5.0||15.0||40.0||15.0||50.0||3.5||6.0||45.0||7.0||7.0
|}

<sup>1</sup> Sensibly-proportioned Link.<br/>
<sup>2</sup> Cell-shaded, big-head Link.<br/>
<sup>3</sup> 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 10.0 odds for predicting otherwise.<br/>
<sup>4</sup> 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 7.0 odds for predicting otherwise.<br/>
<sup>5</sup> 5.0 odds for predicting "new forme appearance".<br/>
<sup>6</sup> Given odds assume no change. 11.0 odds for predicting the Trainer with at least 1 different Pokémon. 20.0 odds for predicting a Pokémon without the Trainer.

===Newcomers===
You may place bets of two types:
#"New character from X universe". Odds are as given.
#"Character Q (from X universe)". Odds will be doubled.

{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Mario series||1.1
|-
|Yoshi subseries||2.5
|-
|WarioWare subseries||4.0
|-
|DK series||1.5
|-
|Zelda series||1.4
|-
|Metroid series||5.0
|-
|Kirby series||2.5
|-
|Star Fox series||2.7
|-
|Pokémon series||3.0
|-
|F-Zero series||25.0
|-
|EarthBound series||25.0
|-
|Fire Emblem series||6.0
|-
|Kid Icarus series||4.0
|-
|Pikmin series<sup>1</sup>||15.0
|-
|Sonic series||25.0
|-
|Metal Gear series||25.0
|-
|New series, first-party||1.5
|-
|New series, third-party (Namco)||1.8
|-
|New series, third-party (other)||4.0
|}

<sup>1</sup> 5.0 odds if new character looks to be an Olimar clone/replacement from Pikmin 3.<br/>

===Trailer details===
Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout.
{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer"||1.7
|-
|Opens with the title logo||1.6
|-
|Opens with a couple of characters readying up||1.3
|-
|First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu)||1.2
|-
|Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes as character-reveal mechanic||3.7
|-
|At least one Final Smash shown<sup>1</sup>||1.4
|-
|Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%<sup>2</sup>||2.3
|-
|Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%<sup>2</sup>||1.6
|-
|Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move||2.1
|-
|What looks to be an altered mechanic||2.0
|-
|What looks to be a new mechanic||2.0
|-
|Something that appears to be adventure-mode-related||4.5
|-
|Contains large explosion||1.5
|-
|Has false ending||6.0
|-
|Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes to tease future announcements||7.5
|}

<sup>1</sup> Or at least most people agree it looks like one (see Wario Waft).<br/>
<sup>2</sup> As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

===Other===
Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.
{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Shows console/handheld connectivity<sup>1</sup>||8.9
|-
|One of the Flagship Four does not appear||50.0
|-
|A veteran has a new Final Smash<sup>2</sup>||5.6
|-
|Link is Hero of Skies||1.4
|-
|Gen V Pokémon (playable or Pokéball)||2.0
|-
|Gen VI Pokémon (playable or Pokéball)||25.0
|}

<sup>1</sup> If it's only described outside the trailer (such as Reggie/Iwata saying "will do such and such" afterwards), it doesn't count.<br/>
<sup>2</sup> Or at least most people agree it looks like one.

==Entries==
You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything).

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.
{|class="wikitable"
|-
!Bets!!User!!{{rollover|Max Potential|maximum possible payout|y}}!!{{rollover|Total Odds|odds of max payout (all odds multiplied)|y}}
|-
|
*10 on a character, new series, third-party (other)
*10 on a character, new series, first-party
*30 on Pit
*10 on Samus
*10 on Captain Falcon
*30 on something that appears to be adventure-mode-related
|[[User:Miles of SmashWiki|<font color="dodgerblue"><span style="font-family:Comic Sans MS;">'''Miles''']] <font color="silver">([[User talk:Miles of SmashWiki|<font color="silver">talk]])</font></font></span></font> 17:55, 5 June 2013 (EDT)
|408.0
|1,228.5
|-
|
*50 on newcomer, F-Zero series
*30 on looks like a veteran has a new/altered move
*10 on at least one final smash shown
*10 on Mario
|'''[[User:JamesHeart123|<font color="blue">James</font>]]'''[[File:JH-Heartless.png|15px|link=Special:Contributions/JamesHeart123]]'''[[User talk:JamesHeart123|<font color="orange">Heart</font>]]''' 21:59, 5 June 2013 (EDT)
|1337.1
|74.235
|-
|
*20 on Wario
*25 on new mechanic
*20 on "Challenger Approaching" for future announcements
*20 on new series, first-party
*15 on adventure mode-related
| <font face="lucida handwriting,segoe script">Ceci n’est pas un [[User:Smiddle|Smiddle]].</font> 04:31, 6 June 2013 (EDT)
|329.5
|162.0
|-
|
*20 on Silhouettes to tease future announcements
*15 on Explosion
*20 on Donkey Kong
*45 into a savings account
*Quietly betting against the appearance of Link<br>so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later.
|[[User:ToastUltimatum|{{Color|#ff8c00|'''Toast'''}}]] [[File:Wii U Logo Transparent.png|17px|link=Special:Contributions/ToastUltimatum]][[User talk:ToastUltimatum|{{Color|#01a3c4|'''ltimatum'''}}]][[File:Transparent Swadloon.png|26px]] 08:46, 6 June 2013 (EDT)
|243.5
|14.625
|-
|
*40 on Fire Emblem newcomer
*20 on large explosion.
*25 on third-party newcomer that isn't Namco.
*15 on Krystal from Star Fox.
|<span style="font-family:Edwardian Script ITC; font-size:12pt">[[User:Omega Tyrant|<span style="color:forestgreen">Omega</span>]] [[User talk:Omega Tyrant|<span style="color:forestgreen">Tyrant</span>]]</span> [[File:TyranitarMS.png]] 18:54, 7 June 2013 (EDT)
|451
|194.4
|-
|
*20 on a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing
*10 on a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing
*20 on Lucas appearing
*20 on a Veteran changing final smashes
*5 on new character (third party other)
*4 on Sonic new character
*4 on Metal Gear new character
*4 on F-Zero new character
*4 on Earthbound/Mother new character
*4 on Mewtwo
*5 on new Pikmin character
|[[User:Mr. Anon|<font color="grey">'''Mr. '''</font><font color="midnightblue">'''Anon'''</font>]][[File:Anon.png|23px|link=Special:Random]][[User talk:Mr. Anon|''<span style="color: black;">talk</span>'']]  21:22, 7 June 2013 (EDT)
|1217
|1,804,687,500,000.0
|-
|

*55 on a new ''F-Zero'' character
*20 on a Generation V Pokémon appearing
*15 on a veteran with a new or altered move
*10 on an Adventure-related gameplay mode
|<span style="font-family: AR DARLING; font-size: 12pt"> [[User:DarkFox01|{{Color|black|Dark}}]][[User talk:DarkFox01|{{Color|darkred|Fox}}]][[Special:Contributions/DarkFox01|{{Color|red|01}}]]</span>[[File:DF01Sig.png|19px]]Great Fox is ready to go. 14:13, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
|1491.5
|472.5
|-
|
*40 on a new ''Kirby'' character
*20 on the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer
*25 on explosion
*15 on Mario
|[[User:Starman125|Starman125]] ([[User talk:Starman125|talk]]) 12:04, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
|176.65
|4.545
|-
|
*20 on Marth
*25 on New Character, Fire Emblem Series
*30 on something that appears to be adventure mode related
*25 on Pit
|<span style="font-family:Triforce, sans-serif;">'''[[User:Dr. Pain 99|<font color=#008000>D<font color=#008019>o<font color=#008031>c<font color=#008049>t<font color=#008062>o<font color=#008080>rP</font>a</font>i</font>n</font>9</font>9</font>]]'''</span> 14:00, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
|672.5
|1,417.5
|-
|
*20 on Mr Game and Watch
*20 on Mewtwo (original)
*40 on new mechanic
*20 on Wolf
|[[Special:Contributions/83.82.134.111|83.82.134.111]] 14:33, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
|1880
|37,500.0
|-
|
*25 on First characters shown are Flagship Four
*25 on MK
*20 on new kirby character
*30 on Marth
|<font style="font-family:arial narrow">[[User:LightningBlue|<font style="color:royalblue">'''Lightning'''</font>]][[User talk:LightningBlue|<font style="color:darkblue">'''Blue'''</font>]]</font>[[File:405MS.png|link=Special:Contributions/LightningBlue]] 16:10, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
|567.5
|67.5
|-
|
*20 on a new Mario character appearing
*20 on a new Pokémon appearing
*10 on a new kirby character 
*25 on a final smash being shown 
*25 on some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown
|<span style="font-family:AR JULIAN; font-size:12pt">[[User:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Chuck</span>]][[User talk:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Norris</span>]]</span>[[File:24.png|23px]]  17:33, 10 June 2013 (EDT)
|364.5
|102.795
|}


===Comments===
Quick question Toomai: If a Young Link returns with a Final Smash different from Toon Link's Triforce Slash, how much do I get? [[User:Mr. Anon|<font color="grey">'''Mr. '''</font><font color="midnightblue">'''Anon'''</font>]][[File:Anon.png|23px|link=Special:Random]][[User talk:Mr. Anon|''<span style="color: black;">talk</span>'']]  12:01, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
:That's a difficult question, since in a sense it depends on whether the final game has one or both secondary Links. If we see both secondary Links in the trailer then I'll count it as a new Final Smash, not a changed one; if only one appears I'll count it as changed as we'll have no other information to go on. [[User:Toomai|Toomai]] [[User talk:Toomai|Glittershine]] [[File:Toomai.png|20px|link=User:Toomai/Bin|???]] The Quiet 13:41, 8 June 2013 (EDT)

== Results ==

{|class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|-
|{{Head|Mario|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Bowser|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Donkey Kong|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Link|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Samus|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Kirby|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Fox|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Pikachu|s=20x20px}}||{{Head|Pit|s=20x20px}}
|-
|1.01||2.5||1.3||1.01||1.3||1.01||1.3||1.01||3.5
|}

{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Villager (New series, first-party)||1.5
|-
|Mega Man (New series, third-party (other))||4.0
|}

{|class="wikitable"
|-
|At least one Final Smash shown||1.4
|-
|Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%||2.3
|-
|Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move||2.1
|-
|What looks to be an altered mechanic||2.0
|-
|Has false ending||6.0
|}

Well looks like pretty much none of us guessed right.

{|class="wikitable"
|-
!colspan=2|Bets!!User!!Results!!Total
|-
|10||character, new series, third-party (other)||rowspan=6|[[User:Miles of SmashWiki|<font color="dodgerblue"><span style="font-family:Comic Sans MS;">'''Miles''']] <font color="silver">([[User talk:Miles of SmashWiki|<font color="silver">talk]])</font></font></span></font>||{{y}}||rowspan=6|173
|-
|10||character, new series, first-party||{{y}}
|-
|30||Pit||{{y}}
|-
|10||Samus||{{y}}
|-
|10||Captain Falcon||{{n}}
|-
|30||something that appears to be adventure-mode-related||{{n}}
|-
|50||newcomer, F-Zero series||rowspan=4|'''[[User:JamesHeart123|<font color="blue">James</font>]]'''[[File:JH-Heartless.png|15px|link=Special:Contributions/JamesHeart123]]'''[[User talk:JamesHeart123|<font color="orange">Heart</font>]]'''||{{n}}||rowspan=4|87.1
|-
|30||looks like a veteran has a new/altered move||{{y}}
|-
|10||at least one final smash shown||{{y}}
|-
|10||Mario||{{y}}
|-
|20||Wario||rowspan=5|<font face="lucida handwriting,segoe script">Ceci n’est pas un [[User:Smiddle|Smiddle]].</font>||{{n}}||rowspan=5|30
|-
|25||new mechanic||{{n}}
|-
|20||"Challenger Approaching" for future announcements||{{n}}
|-
|20||new series, first-party||{{y}}
|-
|15||adventure mode-related||{{n}}
|-
|20||Silhouettes to tease future announcements||rowspan=5|[[User:ToastUltimatum|{{Color|#ff8c00|'''Toast'''}}]] [[File:Wii U Logo Transparent.png|17px|link=Special:Contributions/ToastUltimatum]][[User talk:ToastUltimatum|{{Color|#01a3c4|'''ltimatum'''}}]][[File:Transparent Swadloon.png|26px]]||{{n}}||rowspan=5|71
|-
|15||Explosion||{{n}}
|-
|20||Donkey Kong||{{y}}
|-
|45||into a savings account||{{y}}
|-
|0||Quietly betting against the appearance of Link<br>so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later.||{{n}}
|-
|40||Fire Emblem newcomer||rowspan=4|<span style="font-family:Edwardian Script ITC; font-size:12pt">[[User:Omega Tyrant|<span style="color:forestgreen">Omega</span>]] [[User talk:Omega Tyrant|<span style="color:forestgreen">Tyrant</span>]]</span> [[File:TyranitarMS.png]]||{{n}}||rowspan=4|100
|-
|20||large explosion.||{{n}}
|-
|25||third-party newcomer that isn't Namco.||{{y}}
|-
|15||Krystal from Star Fox.||{{n}}
|-
|20||a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing||rowspan=11|[[User:Mr. Anon|<font color="grey">'''Mr. '''</font><font color="midnightblue">'''Anon'''</font>]][[File:Anon.png|23px|link=Special:Random]][[User talk:Mr. Anon|''<span style="color: black;">talk</span>'']]||{{n}}||rowspan=11|20
|-
|10||a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing||{{n}}
|-
|20||Lucas appearing||{{n}}
|-
|20||a Veteran changing final smashes||{{n}}
|-
|5||new character (third party other)||{{y}}
|-
|4||Sonic new character||{{n}}
|-
|4||Metal Gear new character||{{n}}
|-
|4||F-Zero new character||{{n}}
|-
|4||Earthbound/Mother new character||{{n}}
|-
|4||Mewtwo||{{n}}
|-
|5||new Pikmin character||{{n}}
|-
|55||a new ''F-Zero'' character||rowspan=4|<span style="font-family: AR DARLING; font-size: 12pt"> [[User:DarkFox01|{{Color|black|Dark}}]][[User talk:DarkFox01|{{Color|darkred|Fox}}]][[Special:Contributions/DarkFox01|{{Color|red|01}}]]</span>[[File:DF01Sig.png|19px]]||{{n}}||rowspan=4|31.5
|-
|20||a Generation V Pokémon appearing||{{n}}
|-
|15||a veteran with a new or altered move||{{y}}
|-
|10||an Adventure-related gameplay mode||{{n}}
|-
|40||a new ''Kirby'' character||rowspan=4|[[User:Starman125|Starman125]] ([[User talk:Starman125|talk]])||{{n}}||rowspan=4|15.15
|-
|20||the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer||{{n}}
|-
|25||explosion||{{n}}
|-
|15||Mario||{{y}}
|-
|20||Marth||rowspan=4|<span style="font-family:Triforce, sans-serif;">'''[[User:Dr. Pain 99|<font color=#008000>D<font color=#008019>o<font color=#008031>c<font color=#008049>t<font color=#008062>o<font color=#008080>rP</font>a</font>i</font>n</font>9</font>9</font>]]'''</span>||{{n}}||rowspan=4|87.5
|-
|25||New Character, Fire Emblem Series||{{n}}
|-
|30||something that appears to be adventure mode related||{{n}}
|-
|25||Pit||{{y}}
|-
|20||Mr Game and Watch||rowspan=4|[[Special:Contributions/83.82.134.111|83.82.134.111]]||{{n}}||rowspan=4|0
|-
|20||Mewtwo (original)||{{n}}
|-
|40||new mechanic||{{n}}
|-
|20||Wolf||{{n}}
|-
|25||First characters shown are Flagship Four||rowspan=4|<font style="font-family:arial narrow">[[User:LightningBlue|<font style="color:royalblue">'''Lightning'''</font>]][[User talk:LightningBlue|<font style="color:darkblue">'''Blue'''</font>]]</font>[[File:405MS.png|link=Special:Contributions/LightningBlue]]||{{n}}||rowspan=4|0
|-
|25||MK||{{n}}
|-
|20||new kirby character||{{n}}
|-
|30||Marth||{{n}}
|-
|20||a new Mario character appearing||rowspan=5|<span style="font-family:AR JULIAN; font-size:12pt">[[User:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Chuck</span>]][[User talk:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Norris</span>]]</span>[[File:24.png|23px]]||{{n}}||rowspan=5|35
|-
|20||a new Pokémon appearing||{{n}}
|-
|10||a new kirby character||{{n}}
|-
|25||a final smash being shown||{{y}}
|-
|25||some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown||{{n}}
|}
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