User:Omega Tyrant/The Smash 4 Character Prediction Game

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Revision as of 13:31, August 11, 2013 by Dr. Pain 99 (talk | contribs) (→‎{{s|user|Dr. Pain 99}}: I '''firmly''' believe Lucario is coming back, and diddy kong won't get me much anyway)
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With Smash 4 on its way and everyone being hyped for it, lets make a game out of everyone's favorite thing to predict about the new Smash; which characters will be on the playable roster.

This game isn't about just who can predict the most characters, but who can also successfully predict the most unlikely characters as well.

Rules

Rules are subject to change midgame, and you may be mandated to alter your ballot in some form midgame.
  • Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
    • Additionally, if you're an IP and you want to play, you must create an account so that your selections remain fully traceable back to you.
  • Players get 30 character selections. This value may be decreased for potential new players as more and more characters are confirmed.
  • Choose a character for each selection, either the return of a veteran or a newcomer, who has not been confirmed yet, that you think will make the playable roster in Smash 4. Additionally, you must make a minimum of 10 newcomer predictions. The inverse applies as well; you can make no more than 20 newcomer predictions.
  • If the character is confirmed or shows up playable in the final product, you will get points based on how common the pick was at the time of confirmation. Each correct pick will give a minimum point value of 1 (if everyone at the time picked it), with an additional point for each person that didn't pick the character. The accurate prediction of a newcomer will be worth double the points. The accurate prediction of a third party newcomer will be worth triple the points.
    • For bonus points, you can also predict if the character will have to be unlocked or will be a starter character. If you guess right, the points you get from that correct selection will increase 50%. If you guess wrong, the points you get will be decreased by 50%. The bonus value for this will be capped at 5 points.
  • You can change your selections at any time up until the full roster reveal. However, for each changed selection, you will be penalised 1 point. Also keep in mind I may set a deadline before the full roster reveal and lock any changes or new predictions from being made.
    • For one more note, if a character you selected gets confirmed, that selection is locked and you cannot change it. This also applies to any characters you selected that get confirmed to not be returning.
    • You can however adjust your predicted unlocking status of any selection without incurring a penalty, as long as you don't overdo it. Once your selection gets confirmed however, your predicted unlocking status is locked.
    • In the event of a credible leak, the leaked character(s) won't be counted as confirmed here until confirmed officially. However, the leaked character(s) will be locked from future selections (and anyone who selected the character(s) will have their choice(s) locked, along with their predicted unlocking status).
  • Your ballot must have at least three different selections from the most similar ballot. This is to prevent people from copying the ballots of others.
  • If you ever get put on probation or are in serious risk for it, you'll be barred from entering (or if you already entered, your ballot will be disqualified), until you reach satisfactory status and are no longer on probation nor in serious risk for it.

Additional notes

  • If you think Pokemon Trainer as a whole will return, he is only worth 1 selection. If you think he won't though but his individual pokemon will, they each will be counted as separate selections.
    • Additionally, if you think pokemon of the PT will be replaced, each prediction will count as an individual selection. If you think there will be a new trainer, you must specify which trainer, and it will also count as an individual selection.
    • Also, by selecting his individual pokemon without specifying otherwise, it counts as an individual pick. As such, if you chose Charizard, and he returns back as part of the PT, it will not count as a correct selection.
  • Majora's Mask Link (where he operates like the Pokemon Trainer and can utilise his transformation masks) counts as a single selection.
  • Mewtwo and his mega form will be counted as a single character, no need to choose between them.
    • The same also applies to Lucario and his mega form (or any other potential pokemon with a mega form).
  • Claus and Masked Man will be counted as separate characters. In the event that Claus is added and uses both forms to fight, or a general Claus is added who can use either model, both Claus and Masked Man selections will be scored together.
    • However, you cannot choose both Claus and Masked Man, as I will not allow the potential for double scoring off of one character confirmation, and it would complicate scoring for others in the event of a general Claus being confirmed.
  • Zelda and Sheik count as separate characters.
  • Removed Melee characters will be considered newcomers, and are thus worth double the points for a correct prediction.

Prize

The winner will receive a copy of Super Smash Bros. 4 for either the Wii U or 3DS (whichever the winner chooses). (Keep in mind that in order to receive this prize, you will have to give me your address upon winning the contest, and you probably won't be able to get a copy of the game on the release date. Also, if you live outside the US and lack an online retailer in your region, you may have to help cover shipping charges if they're particularly expensive).

There are no plans at the time for a prize for runner ups.

Entrants

To submit an entry;

  • Create a new subsection here, with your username in the title, and it linking to your userpage.
  • Copy the table I use and paste it under your header, where you then just replace my selections with yours.
  • Note: If you're severely incompetent with wiki editing and cannot do this on your own, post your ballot on the talk page and someone will add it for you. Only do this if you really cannot figure out how to submit your ballot yourself.

Additional notes:

  • When adding your selections, you may include a (S) to signify you're predicting them as a starter character, or a (U) as an unlockable character. This is optional, see the prior rule about this.
  • Place returning veterans on top, and newcomers on the bottom. Additionally, try to organise by series.
  • When a character is confirmed, they will be bolded on each ballot they're on. The unlocking status however, will not be bolded until that is confirmed as well, where correct predictions will then be bolded while incorrect predictions are struck out.
  • It's recommended you update the selected characters tables in the next section as you submit a ballot, so they remain accurate. If you can't do it though without messing them up, wait and I or another user will update them.

Omega Tyrant

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Diddy Kong (S)
  3. Wario (S)
  4. Yoshi (S)
  5. Ganondorf (U)
  6. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  7. R.O.B. (U)
  8. Meta Knight
  9. King Dedede (S)
  10. Olimar (S)
  11. Falco (S)
  12. Wolf (U)
  13. Lucario (U)
  14. Marth
  15. Ike (U)
  16. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  17. Sonic (U)
  18. Rosalina
  19. Fawful (U)
  20. Dixie Kong
  21. Ridley (U)
  22. Palutena (U)
  23. Krystal
  24. Mewtwo (U)
  25. Zoroark
  26. Chrom (S)
  27. Lucina (U)
  28. Mii (S)
  29. Little Mac (S)
  30. Pac-Man (U)

Mr. Anon

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong (S)
  4. Wario (S)
  5. Yoshi (S)
  6. Ganondorf (U)
  7. Sheik (S)
  8. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  9. R.O.B. (U)
  10. Meta Knight (S)
  11. King Dedede (S)
  12. Olimar (S)
  13. Falco
  14. Charizard
  15. Marth (U)
  16. Ness
  17. Lucas
  18. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  19. Snake (U)
  20. Bowser Jr.
  21. Kamek
  22. Ridley
  23. Medusa
  24. Krystal
  25. Mewtwo (U)
  26. Zoroark (U)
  27. Chrom
  28. Little Mac (U)
  29. Shadow (U)
  30. Pac-Man (U)

RickTommy

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Yoshi (S)
  4. Wario (S)
  5. Diddy Kong
  6. Zelda (S)
  7. Ganondorf
  8. Meta Knight (S)
  9. King Dedede (S)
  10. Falco
  11. Jigglypuff (U)
  12. Captain Falcon (S)
  13. Ness
  14. Lucas
  15. Ice Climbers (S)
  16. Marth
  17. Mr. Game and Watch
  18. Olimar (S)
  19. R.O.B. (U)
  20. Daisy (U)
  21. Birdo (U)
  22. Waluigi (U)
  23. Bowser Jr. (U)
  24. Kamek (U)
  25. Black Shadow (U)
  26. Little Mac (S)
  27. Takamaru (S)
  28. Ryota Hayami (S)
  29. Isaac (S)
  30. Lloyd Irving (U)

JamesHeart123

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong
  4. Yoshi (S)
  5. Zelda (S)
  6. Sheik (S)
  7. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  8. Falco
  9. Wolf (U)
  10. Captain Falcon (U)
  11. Squirtle (S)
  12. Lucario
  13. Jigglypuff (U)
  14. Ness (U)
  15. Lucas (S)
  16. Snake (U)
  17. Sonic (U)
  18. Bowser Jr.
  19. Kamek (U)
  20. Wolf Link
  21. Adam Malkovich (U)
  22. Magolor
  23. Krystal
  24. Mighty Gazelle
  25. Mewtwo (U)
  26. Masked Man (U)
  27. Magnus (U)
  28. Isa Jo
  29. Lloyd Irving (U)
  30. Shulk

Terrible

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong (S)
  4. Wario (S)
  5. Yoshi (S)
  6. Ganondorf (U)
  7. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  8. R.O.B. (U)
  9. Meta Knight (U)
  10. King Dedede (S)
  11. Olimar (S)
  12. Falco (U)
  13. Captain Falcon (U)
  14. Jijgglypuff (U)
  15. Marth (U)
  16. Ike (S)
  17. Ness (U)
  18. Lucas (S)
  19. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  20. Rosalina (U)
  21. Fawful (U)
  22. Dixie Kong (U)
  23. Dark Samus (U)
  24. Krystal (U)
  25. Zoroark (U)
  26. Chrom (S)
  27. Lucina (U)
  28. Clause (S)
  29. Little Mac (S)
  30. Mr. Sandman (U)

Dr. Pain 99

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Wario (S)
  4. Yoshi (S)
  5. Zelda (S)
  6. Ganondorf (U)
  7. Ice Climbers (S)
  8. King Dedede (S)
  9. Meta Knight (S)
  10. Olimar (S)
  11. Falco (U)
  12. Captain Falcon
  13. Luacrio
  14. Jigglypuff (U)
  15. Marth (U)
  16. Ike (S)
  17. Ness
  18. Lucas
  19. Mr. Game and Watch (U)
  20. Sonic (U)
  21. Bowser Jr. (U)
  22. Paper Mario (U)
  23. Dixie Kong (U)
  24. King K. Rool (U)
  25. Zoroark (U)
  26. Mewtwo (U)
  27. Chrom
  28. Little Mac
  29. Isaac
  30. Sora (U)

∞. STARBAN (S)

Lasifer

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Wario (S)
  4. Yoshi (S)
  5. Ness (U)
  6. Lucas (S)
  7. Diddy Kong (S)
  8. Zelda (S)
  9. Sheik (S)
  10. Ganondorf (U)
  11. Ice Climbers (S)
  12. Meta Knight (S)
  13. King DeDeDe (S)
  14. Wolf (U)
  15. Captain Falcon (U)
  16. Olimar (S)
  17. Jigglypuff (U)
  18. Mewtwo (U)
  19. Marth (U)
  20. R.O.B. (U)
  21. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  22. K. Rool (S)
  23. Geno (U)
  24. Ridley (S)
  25. Isaac (S)
  26. Genesect (U)
  27. Masked Man (U)
  28. Chrom (S)
  29. Little Mac (S)
  30. Takamaru (U)

Ixbran

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong (S)
  4. Wario (S)
  5. Yoshi (S)
  6. Zelda (S)
  7. Sheik (S)
  8. Ganondorf (U)
  9. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  10. Ice Climbers (S)
  11. R.O.B. (U)
  12. Captain Falcon (S)
  13. Jigglypuff (U)
  14. Marth (U)
  15. Ike (U)
  16. Ness (U)
  17. Lucas (S)
  18. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  19. Majora's Mask Link (U)
  20. Vaati (U)
  21. Koume & Kotake (U)
  22. Mewtwo (U)
  23. Mii (S)
  24. Takamaru (U)
  25. Simon Belmont (U)
  26. Sora (U)
  27. Terra Branford (U)
  28. Zhao Yun (U)
  29. Yukimura Sanada (U)
  30. Bayonetta (U)

DarkFox01

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong (S)
  4. Wario (S)
  5. Yoshi (S)
  6. Ganondorf (U)
  7. Toon Link (U)
  8. Meta Knight (S)
  9. King Dedede
  10. Olimar (S)
  11. Falco (U)
  12. Wolf (S)
  13. Jigglypuff (U)
  14. Lucario (U)
  15. Marth (U)
  16. Ike
  17. Ness (U)
  18. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  19. Snake (U)
  20. Sonic (U)
  21. Bowser Jr.
  22. King K. Rool
  23. Krystal
  24. Black Shadow
  25. Mewtwo (U)
  26. Zoroark (S)
  27. Chrom (S)
  28. Masked Man
  29. Little Mac (S)
  30. Pac-Man (U)

Dots

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Yoshi (S)
  4. Diddy Kong (S)
  5. Zelda (S)
  6. Sheik (S)
  7. Ganondorf (U)
  8. Ice Climbers (S)
  9. Meta Knight
  10. King Dedede
  11. Olimar
  12. Falco (U)
  13. Wolf (U)
  14. Captain Falcon
  15. Jigglypuff (U)
  16. Marth (U)
  17. Ness
  18. Lucas
  19. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  20. Rosalina
  21. Fawful
  22. Bowser Jr.
  23. Dixie Kong (S)
  24. Ridley
  25. Krystal
  26. Mewtwo (U)
  27. Claus (U)
  28. Pac-Man (U)
  29. Zoroark (U)
  30. Little Mac (S)

Erik the Appreciator

Ballot
  1. Peach
  2. Diddy Kong
  3. Wario
  4. Sheik
  5. Toon Link
  6. Zero Suit Samus
  7. Ice Climbers
  8. R.O.B.
  9. Olimar
  10. Captain Falcon
  11. Jigglypuff
  12. Ike
  13. Mr. Game & Watch
  14. Snake
  15. Sonic
  16. Bowser Jr.
  17. Waluigi
  18. King K. Rool
  19. Vaati
  20. Viridi
  21. Krystal
  22. Mewtwo
  23. Zoroark
  24. Samurai Goroh
  25. Chrom
  26. Little Mac
  27. Isaac
  28. Matthew
  29. Andy
  30. Ray Mk III

MegiBeelzebub

Ballot
  1. Luigi
  2. Diddy Kong
  3. Zelda
  4. Sheik
  5. Ganondorf
  6. Meta Knight
  7. King Dedede
  8. Wolf
  9. Pokemon Trainer
  10. Ike
  11. Mr.Game and Watch
  12. Snake
  13. Rosalina
  14. Waluigi
  15. King K. Rool
  16. Vaati
  17. Ridley
  18. Krystal
  19. Samurai Goroh
  20. Mewtwo
  21. Camus
  22. Ninten
  23. Little Mac
  24. Felix
  25. Ray Mk III
  26. Saki Amamiya
  27. Chibi-Robo
  28. Geno
  29. Professor Layton
  30. Chrono

ToastUltimatum

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Zelda (S)
  4. Ganondorf (U)
  5. R.O.B. (U)
  6. Meta Knight (U)
  7. King Dedede (S)
  8. Falco (U)
  9. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  10. Captain Falcon (U)
  11. Jigglypuff (U)
  12. Pokémon Trainer (S)
  13. Marth (S)
  14. Ness (U)
  15. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  16. Snake (U)
  17. Sonic (U)
  18. Bowser Jr. (U)
  19. Dixie Kong (S)
  20. King K. Rool (S)
  21. Groose (S)
  22. Ridley (U)
  23. Krystal (S)
  24. Mewtwo (U)
  25. Chrom (U)
  26. Roy (U)
  27. Little Mac (S)
  28. Takamaru (S)
  29. Isaac (Golden Sun) (S)
  30. The Main Protagonist of X (Monolith Soft) (S)

HavocReaper48

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong (S)
  4. Yoshi (S)
  5. Wario (S)
  6. Zelda (S)
  7. Sheik (S)
  8. Ganondorf (U)
  9. Toon Link (U)
  10. Zero Suit Samus (S)
  11. Ice Climbers (U)
  12. R.O.B. (U)
  13. Captain Falcon (U)
  14. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  15. Dixie Kong (U)
  16. Funky Kong (U)
  17. Young Link (OoT) (U)
  18. Anthony Higgs (U)
  19. Mewtwo (U)
  20. Zoroark (U)
  21. Chrom (S)
  22. Lucina (S)
  23. Lyn (S)
  24. Ephraim (U)
  25. Isaac (U)
  26. Pac-Man (U)
  27. Simon Belmont (U)
  28. Heavy Weapons Guy (U)
  29. Phoenix Wright (U)
  30. Jin Kazama (U)

9001. GOKU (S)

Marioisawesome118

Ballot
  1. Luigi(U)
  2. Wario(U)
  3. Yoshi(S)
  4. Zelda(S)
  5. Meta Knight(S)
  6. King Dedede(S)
  7. Captain Falcon(U)
  8. Lucario(U)
  9. Jigglypuff(U)
  10. Marth(U)
  11. Ike(S)
  12. Ness(U)
  13. Lucas(S)
  14. Mr. Game & Watch(U)
  15. Toad(S)
  16. Toadette(U)
  17. Galacta Knight(U)
  18. Claus(U)
  19. Shadow(U)
  20. Tails(S)
  21. Knuckles(S)
  22. Little Mac(S)
  23. Zero(U)
  24. Lloyd Irving(U)
  25. Ivy(S)
  26. Cervantes(U)
  27. Headdy(S)
  28. Bomberman(S)
  29. Black Mage(U)
  30. White Mage(U)

The Awesome

This user is currently barred from entering this contest, and thus his ballot will not be counted as of now. It'll be kept up for the time being in the case the user achieves satisfactory status.

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Yoshi (S)
  3. Wario (S)
  4. Waluigi (U)
  5. Peach (S)
  6. Toad (S)
  7. Diddy Kong (U)
  8. Funky Kong (U)
  9. Zelda (S)
  10. Toon Link (U)
  11. Ganondorf (U)
  12. Pokemon Trainer (S)
  13. Lucario (U)
  14. Mewtwo (S)
  15. Ness (U)
  16. Lucas (S)
  17. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  18. R.O.B (S)
  19. Falco (S)
  20. Wolf (U)
  21. Ike (S)
  22. Marth (U)
  23. Goku (U)
  24. Naruto (U)
  25. Ichigo (U)
  26. Shadow (U)
  27. Tails (S)
  28. Knuckles (S)
  29. Bomberman (S)
  30. Black Mage (U)

LavaKirby

Ballot
  1. Luigi (U)
  2. Peach (S)
  3. Diddy Kong (U)
  4. Yoshi (S)
  5. Wario (U)
  6. Zelda (S)
  7. Sheik (S)
  8. Ganondorf (U)
  9. Toon Link (U)
  10. Meta Knight (U)
  11. King Dedede (S)
  12. Captain Falcon (U)
  13. Jigglypuff (U)
  14. Pokémon Trainer (S)
  15. Marth (U)
  16. Ike (S)
  17. Ness (U)
  18. Mr. Game & Watch (U)
  19. Sonic (U)
  20. Bowser Jr. (U)
  21. Toad (S)
  22. Funky Kong (U)
  23. Waddle Dee (S)
  24. Waddle Doo (U)
  25. Krystal (U)
  26. Mewtwo (U)
  27. Golem (Pokémon) (U)
  28. Isaac (Golden Sun) (S)
  29. Tails (S)
  30. Shadow (U)

Selected characters

The following tables keeps track of how much each character been selected thus far.

You may update the values, whether it be right after you submit a ballot, or someone else does without updating this and I'm not around. When adding a newcomer though to the newcomer table, keep them organised by series, and put newcomers from new series at the bottom, above third party newcomers from new series.

Do not update this however when a character is confirmed, I'll handle it myself.

16 users have submitted a ballot thus far.

Veterans

Character Number of selections Confirmed Point value
Luigi 15/16 Yes 2
Peach 13 No
Diddy Kong 14 No
Wario 12 No
Yoshi 13 No
Zelda 11 No
Sheik 9 No
Ganondorf 13 No
Toon Link 4 No
Zero Suit Samus 8 No
Ice Climbers 7 No
R.O.B. 9 No
Meta Knight 12 No
King Dedede 12 No
Olimar 9/15 Yes 7
Falco 9 No
Wolf 7 No
Captain Falcon 12 No
Pokemon Trainer (same trainer and mons) 3 No
Charizard (individually) 1 No
Ivysaur (individually) 0 No
Squirtle (individually) 1 No
Lucario 4 No
Jigglypuff 11 No
Marth 12 No
Ike 9 No
Ness 12 No
Lucas 9 No
Mr. Game & Watch 15 No
Snake 6 No
Sonic 7 No

Newcomers

Character Number of selections Confirmed Point value
Rosalina 4 No
Fawful 3 No
Bowser Jr. 9 No
Paper Mario 1 No
Daisy 1 No
Birdo 1 No
Waluigi 3 No
Toad 2 No
Toadette 1 No
Dixie Kong 6 No
King K. Rool 6 No
Funky Kong 2 No
Kamek 3 No
Wolf Link 1 No
Link (Majora's Mask) 1 No
Vaati 3 No
Koume & Kotake 1 No
Groose 1 No
Young Link 1 No
Ridley 6 No
Adam Malkovich 1 No
Dark Samus 1 No
Anthony Higgs 1 No
Palutena 1 No
Medusa 1 No
Magnus 1 No
Viridi 1 No
Magolor 1 No
Galacta Knight 1 No
Waddle Dee 1 No
Waddle Doo 1 No
Krystal 10 No
Mewtwo 13 No
Zoroark 8 No
Genesect 1 No
Golem 1 No
Samurai Goroh 2 No
Black Shadow 2 No
Mighty Gazelle 1 No
Chrom 9 No
Lucina 3 No
Roy 1 No
Camus 1 No
Lyn 1 No
Ephraim 1 No
Claus 3 No
Masked Man 3 No
Ninten 1 No
Shadow 3 No
Tails 2 No
Knuckles 1 No
Mii 2 No
Little Mac 12 No
Mr. Sandman 1 No
Takamaru 4 No
Ryota Hayami 1 No
Isaac 7 No
Matthew 1 No
Felix 1 No
Andy 1 No
Ray Mk III 2 No
Saki Amamiya 1 No
Isa Jo 1 No
Chibi-Robo 1 No
Zero 1 No
Pac-Man 4 No
Simon Belmont 2 No
Lloyd Irving 3 No
Shulk 1 No
Sora 2 No
Geno 2 No
Terra Branford 1 No
Zhao Yun 1 No
Yukimura Sanada 1 No
Bayonetta 1 No
Professor Layton 1 No
Chrono 1 No
The Main Protagonist of X (Monolith Soft) 1 No
Heavy Weapons Guy 1 No
Phoenix Wright 1 No
Jin Kazama 1 No
Ivy 1 No
Cervantes 1 No
Headdy 1 No
Bomberman 1 No
Black Mage 1 No
White Mage 1 No

Super picks

Character Number of selections Confirmed Point value
GOKU 1 No 9001
STARBAN 1 No ∞

Results

This section will keep track of everyone's scores. Other users may not edit this section.

User Number of correct selections Bonus points Penalty points Total score
Omega Tyrant 2/30 0 -2 7
Mr. Anon 2/30 0 0 9
RickTommy 2/30 0 0 9
JamesHeart123 1/30 0 0 2
Terrible 2/30 0 0 9
Dr. Pain 99 2/30 0 0 9
Lasifer 2/30 0 0 9
Ixbran 1/30 0 -1 1
DarkFox01 2/30 0 0 9
Dots 2/30 0 0 9
Erik the Appreciator 1/30 0 0 7
MegiBeelzebub 1/30 0 0 2
ToastUltimatum 1/30 0 -1 1
HavocReaper48 1/30 0 0 2
Marioisawesome118 1/30 0 0 2
LavaKirby 1/30 0 0 2
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