User:YoshiRyu

Formerly known as IP 81.254.247.115, I am now YoshiRyu.

Fighters pass predictions

Here are the characters I think may have a shot as being amongst the Fighters pass :

• A Square-Enix character : let's be clear, I don't think so because of any leak, I think so because of actual intel we all have on the relation ship between Square-Enix and Nintendo. We know that Square-Enix wanted Cloud to be specifically a DLC character for SSB4. We also know they wanted him to be one too in SSBU, but Sakurai wanted him to be in the base roster instead so Everyone is here. Therefore we can assume that Square-Enix let Sakurai put Cloud in the base roster in exchange for another character as a DLC fighter. But which one ? We can assume that Square-Enix had the high hand in that negociation, Nintendo probably let them pick their own character to get Cloud. So here is my list of potential fighters :
  • The most obvious one is Erdrick, right after Final Fantasy, the most popular series owned by Square-Enix is Dragon Quest, and Erdrick is the most iconic character from this series.
  • Sora could be a good candidate too. Joker proved that Kingdom Heart is big enough to join Smash. And Sora, on top of being a good enough candidate, would also be good advertising for KH3.
  • Lara Croft would be a suprising candidate, but Reggie said that they were aiming to surprise us, and Square-Enix own Eidos. This character would surely be a huge addition. But it's a bit of a stretch.
  • Geno : see my Geno theory right bellow.
• A Bandai-Namco character : it's kind of weird that despite working on SSBU, Bandai-Namco still only have Pac-Man in the game. With Heihachi being added to Pac-Man taunt, while Lloyd Irving wasn't, despite the both of them being Mii costumes in SSB4, I think it's pretty safe to assume Lloyd Irving is comming to Smash. On the top of that, there isn't a single spirit from the Tales of series in the game, and that is quite suspicious.
• A Microsoft character : the relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft is pretty solid right now. It would be really weird if Microsoft didn't end up having a figther in Smash. There are two very likely candidates (and honestly, we could even actually end up getting both) :
  • Steve from Minecraft. Despite many people not wanting him in Smash, Minecraft is still the second best selling game of all time. Steve is a part of gaming history, whether you like it or not, he has a solid shot.
  • Banjo & Kazooie is a game that is part of Nintendo history, Banjo-Kazooie managed to enter the N64 top ten, outselling games like Majora's Mask, no doubt this duo has been highly requested in the ballot.
• A Koei Tecmo character : the ties with Nintendo are tight too, after Hyrule Warriors and Fire Emblem Warriors, it wouldn't be totally unexpected to see a Keoi Tecmo fighter is Smash, Ryu Hayabusa probably being the most likely one, I would be really surprised if they went with a character from Dynasty Warriors or Dead or Alive instead.
• A Ubisoft character : It would be a bit surprising that Ubisoft agreed on Rayman being a spirit if they didn't get a fighter too, of course Rayman himself is already ruled out, unfortunatly, otherwise he wouldn't be a spirit until being released as a fighter too, but we could have either Ezio, the most popular assassin, or the iconic Prince of Persia.

On a side note, I don't think the DLC will end with this first fighters pass :

• Once this first fighters pass is fully released (probably somewhere around early 2020), Nintendo will check the SSBU sales numbers, and if the game is still doing well (and I bet you it will), they will undoubtably consider releasing a second fighters pass (probably the exact same format : 5x fighter + stage + musics).
• Also, now Nintendo has seen how the echo fighters reception went (and it went pretty well), they're probably considering adding some new echo fighters as DLC too. A single DLC pack with 3 echo fighters for $9.99 sounds like something that could happen (and if so, I'm betting on Dixie Kong being part of it).

My Geno Theory

I have the feeling that Geno may have been inially planed to be in the base roster by Sakurai, and that he may also have been pushed to the DLC phase. Here is why :

• It's known that Sakurai likes this character for he has said so.
• It's also safe to assume that this character is as requested (if not more) as Ridley and K Rool for he is the only character to ever had a Mii costume announced with a splash card.
• We can tell that a character have been cut, thanks to datamining, for there is a missing number amongst the newcomers in the music file numerotation : "z92" is missing.
• We also know that Square-Enix has been very difficult to negociate with for SSBU, Sakurai even said that Cloud almost didn't make it to the game because of that.

So here is my theory about what may have happened behind the scene :

• Sakurai initially planned to add Geno in the game, alongside Cloud, for he scored very high in the ballot, and started to work on him as that "z92" character.
• But Square-Enix wanted all of their characters to be DLC fighters, and Nintendo had to bargain hard to convince them to let Sakurai put Cloud in the base roster.
• In exchange for that concession about Cloud, Sakurai agreed to delay Geno to the DLC phase as wanted by Square-Enix, and he cut him from the game.

Two details that further my theory :

• First, the fighters numbers : Piranha Plant aside, there is 69 numbered fighters, witch is an odd number when you think about how the game com went. Of course, the Piranha Plant round up that number to a nice 70, but I can't help but wonder why Piranha Plant availability is febuary and not sooner. The whole point of Piranha Plant is to encourage people to buy the game as soon as possible, so it would have make more sense to plan its release alongside the game, but Sakurai didn't do so... could it be that the Piranha Plant is a late addition to compensate for the cut character ? And if so, isn't the fact that the Plant will be available so late good evidence that the cut character has been cut very late too, and is therefore very likely to be related to the negociation difficulties with Square-Enix ?
• Secondly, the amount of assist trophies : here again, the number is odd, 59 assist trophies doesn't sound right. It sounds like a 60th trophy could have been cut too, and if so, wouldn't it make sense to assume that that trophy is from the same series as the cut character, a series for which it wouldn't make sense to keep the trophy without the fighter. Could it be that Mallow was planned as an assist trophy alongside Geno being planned as a fighter, and that both were cut together ?

Time will tell if I'm right or not, but I can't help thinking that my Geno theory makes quite a lot of sense, in regard to the information we currently have.

My Guessing Game so far...

List of things I guessed right :

• I guessed that most of the cut characters would return for they probably were highly requested in the ballot (I often talked about the Ice Climbers and Wolf).
• I guessed that the Inklings would be added, that they would be the very first announcement, and that the girl would be the default skin.
• I guessed that Daisy would be added as a clone (the concept of echo fighters wasn't known before she was announced).
• I guessed that Ridley had a shot if Sakurai was willing to compromise about his penchant for perfect representation.
• I guessed that King K. Rool would be announced in the second direct (I guessed so right after Ridley's announcement).
• I guessed that Isabelle would not be an echo fighter if she was added (I wasn't sure she would be added however).
• I guessed that Ken would be added as an echo fighter (but that one was easy).
• I guessed that the Octolings wouldn't be in the game (the purple and pink inks, the octoling colors, were both already used by the Inklings).
• I guessed that Waluigi wouldn't be playable (don't mistake the people who are just goofing around for actual fans, his genuine fanbase is smaller than it seems).
• I guessed that there would be no Monster Hunter fighter, and that Rathalos would stay the only way this series would be represented in the game.
• I guessed that Shovel Knight would be at best an Assist Trophy (and that's already huge for an indy character).

List of things I guessed wrong :

• I thought that Rayman would finally join this time, he didn't (and he won't).
• I thought that Spring Man and Ribbon Girl would be added as DLC fighters, first as palette swaps, later as echo fighters (but they won't).
• I thought that Rex & Pyra would be added as a DLC fighter (and they won't either, at least not in the first fighters pass).
• I thought that Shadow would be an obvious addition as an echo fighter.
• I thought that Dixie Kong would be Diddy's echo fighter for there no other reason Diddy lost his tail attack (I still think she may have been cut).
• I also thought that Chrom being Roy's echo instead of Ike's was good evidence that another character was planned as Ike's echo fighter.

List of things I didn't see comming :

• I really didn't think that Snake could return, I thought Konami wouldn't agree.
• I really didn't think that the Pokémon Trainer would return as a single fighter.
• I really didn't think that Incineroar would be added, and thought that Sakurai would go for a Gen 8 Pokémon during the DLC phase instead.
• I really didn't think that Sakura would add a Piranha Plant (but so didn't you).

The thing I totally derped about :

• I didn't think about Simon being added while I totally should have, it was quite obvious as soon as Snake return was announced.