User:YoshiRyu

Formerly known as IP 81.254.247.115, I am now YoshiRyu.

Fighters pass predictions

Fighter pass 1

Here are the characters I think may have a shot as being amongst the Fighters pass :

• A Square-Enix character : let's be clear, I don't think so because of any leak, I think so because of actual intel we all have on the relation ship between Square-Enix and Nintendo. We know that Square-Enix wanted Cloud to be specifically a DLC character for SSB4. We also know they wanted him to be one too in SSBU, but Sakurai wanted him to be in the base roster instead so Everyone is here. Therefore we can assume that Square-Enix let Sakurai put Cloud in the base roster in exchange for another character as a DLC fighter. But which one ? We can assume that Square-Enix had the high hand in that negociation, Nintendo probably let them pick their own character to get Cloud. So here is my list of potential fighters :
  • The most obvious one is Erdrick, right after Final Fantasy, the most popular series owned by Square-Enix is Dragon Quest, and Erdrick is the most iconic character from this series.
  • Sora could be a good candidate too. Joker proved that Kingdom Heart is big enough to join Smash. And Sora, on top of being a good enough candidate, would also be good advertising for KH3.
  • Lara Croft would be a suprising candidate, but Reggie said that they were aiming to surprise us, and Square-Enix own Eidos. This character would surely be a huge addition. But it's a bit of a stretch.
  • Geno : see my Geno theory right bellow.
• A Bandai-Namco character : it's kind of weird that despite working on SSBU, Bandai-Namco still only have Pac-Man in the game. With Heihachi being added to Pac-Man taunt, while Lloyd Irving wasn't, despite the both of them being Mii costumes in SSB4, I think it's pretty safe to assume Lloyd Irving is comming to Smash. On the top of that, there isn't a single spirit from the Tales of series in the game, and that is quite suspicious.
• A Microsoft character : the relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft is pretty solid right now. It would be really weird if Microsoft didn't end up having a figther in Smash. There are two very likely candidates (and honestly, we could even actually end up getting both) :
  • Steve from Minecraft. Despite many people not wanting him in Smash, Minecraft is still the second best selling game of all time. Steve is a part of gaming history, whether you like it or not, he has a solid shot.
  • Banjo & Kazooie is a game that is part of Nintendo history, Banjo-Kazooie managed to enter the N64 top ten, outselling games like Majora's Mask, no doubt this duo has been highly requested in the ballot.
• A Koei Tecmo character : the ties with Nintendo are tight too, after Hyrule Warriors and Fire Emblem Warriors, it wouldn't be totally unexpected to see a Keoi Tecmo fighter is Smash, Ryu Hayabusa probably being the most likely one, I would be really surprised if they went with a character from Dynasty Warriors or Dead or Alive instead.
• A Ubisoft character : It would be a bit surprising that Ubisoft agreed on Rayman being a spirit if they didn't get a fighter too, of course Rayman himself is already ruled out, unfortunatly, otherwise he wouldn't be a spirit until being released as a fighter too, but we could have either Ezio, the most popular assassin, or the iconic Prince of Persia.

On a side note, I don't think the DLC will end with this first fighters pass :

• Once this first fighters pass is fully released (probably somewhere around early 2020), Nintendo will check the SSBU sales numbers, and if the game is still doing well (and I bet you it will), they will undoubtably consider releasing a second fighters pass (probably the exact same format : 5x fighter + stage + musics).
• Also, now Nintendo has seen how the echo fighters reception went (and it went pretty well), they're probably considering adding some new echo fighters as DLC too. A single DLC pack with 3 echo fighters for $9.99 sounds like something that could happen (and if so, I'm betting on Dixie Kong being part of it).

Fighter pass 2

Here are my early predictions for the second Fighter pass :

• A Bethesda Softworks character : They have been in touch with Nintendo about Smash, it's a known fact, and Doomguy seems to be the best character for that company to add in Smash as it is an iconic character from one of the best known game franchise ever.
• A Square-Enix character : They like pushing their characters in Smash as DLC fighter, and I'm fairly convinced that they will have a character in the new Fighter Pass too. Geno is still the most logical pick as it's a character that both have been considered by Sakurai and wanted by the players for a decade. But Sora, who has the same level of relevance as Joker, could still be picked too.
• A Koei Tecmo character : The relation between them and Nintendo is still the same, and I still think we will end up with a character of their in Smash. And Ryu Hayabusa still looks like the most likely Smash fighter to me.
• A Ubisoft character : Now, on top of having Ubisoft spirits in Smash, we also have Ubisoft DLC Mii costumes in Smash, but still no Ubisoft fighter? It becomes odder and odder. After the reveal of an Assassin's Creed costume and a Rabbids mask, there is a Mii costume that should have been an obvious addition, yet it didn't happen... it looks a lot like a Rayman fighter is finally coming to Smash.
• A Microsoft character : We already got Banjo & Kazooie, but you know what? Most third party companies involved in Smash have more than one fighter, and Minecraft is now the number one top selling game of all time. And yet again, no Mii costume for that charater. It wouldn't be surprising to see Steve added as a second rep for Microsoft, would it?
• Another character? Well obviously, yes. But my last prediction is more of a stretch. In the end, the first Fighter pass included a Nintendo character, unexpectedly, so we can expect the new Fighter pass to do the same. And when Sakurai announced the Rex costume as a bonus for the first Fighter pass, he said that he couldn't add him because of a bad timing. But XC2 ended up being more successful than XC1, so maybe Rex & Pyra are going to join Smash?

And what about the previous predictions?

• Well I got it right for Microsoft, and almost right for Square-Enix, and I'm still betting on a fighter for Koei Tecmo and Ubisoft. The one company I'm not predicting anymore is Bandai-Namco because I think that if they were to have another character in Smash, that would have been done in the first Fighter pass.
• As for the sidenote, I got it almost right for the second Fighter pass, but I don't think anymore that we will see an Echo pass of some sort, because yet again, it would have already been done if it was a thing. I'm still surprised that we didn't get Dixie Kong at all since I'm totally convinced she was planed at some point and has been cut from the base roster, but who knows if she won't pop up somehow in the futur?

Bonus DLC

Thanks to the pages numerotation in the australian Smash website, we know that another DLC of some sort will be announced at the end of the second Fighter pass. That mysterious DLC could be many things, and it's hard to make a prediction, but here is the 3 options that would make sense to me:

• This DLC could be the fighter that Sakuraï didn't manage to secure for the base roster: The infamous z92 character that is missing in the music file numerotation in the game. This character could have finally been agreed upon, and could show up as a separate DLC, outside of the Fighter passes. And for such an option, I would still think it would be Geno, for the same reason that it's a know fact that Sakurai did want to include him at some point.
• This DLC could rather be a fighter echoing a character from the base game. Sakurai may want to include a character whose addition would be more relevant as an echo fighter, and a DLC of that kind wouldn't make sense in a Fighter pass. And for this option, I would think Dixie Kong is the most likely option, for the same reason I already stated here a long time ago that Diddy's tail jab removal seems totally gratuitous.
• But this DLC could also simply be a Mii costume. However, to be able to be the missing page, it would have not to be just any random Mii costume, but rather something out of the ordinary. But what costume could be special enough to be listed amongst the "big" DLCs? Well, maybe a costume that would celebrate Smash, what about a Tabuu costume with variants for all the 3 type of Miis...?

My Geno Theory

I have the feeling that Geno may have been inially planed to be in the base roster by Sakurai, and that he may also have been pushed to the DLC phase. Here is why :

• It's known that Sakurai likes this character for he has said so.
• It's also safe to assume that this character is as requested (if not more) as Ridley and K Rool for he is the only character to ever had a Mii costume announced with a splash card.
• We can tell that a character have been cut, thanks to datamining, for there is a missing number amongst the newcomers in the music file numerotation : "z92" is missing.
• We also know that Square-Enix has been very difficult to negociate with for SSBU, Sakurai even said that Cloud almost didn't make it to the game because of that.

So here is my theory about what may have happened behind the scene :

• Sakurai initially planned to add Geno in the game, alongside Cloud, for he scored very high in the ballot, and started to work on him as that "z92" character.
• But Square-Enix wanted all of their characters to be DLC fighters, and Nintendo had to bargain hard to convince them to let Sakurai put Cloud in the base roster.
• In exchange for that concession about Cloud, Sakurai agreed to delay Geno to the DLC phase as wanted by Square-Enix, and he cut him from the game.

Two details that further my theory :

• First, the fighters numbers : Piranha Plant aside, there is 69 numbered fighters, witch is an odd number when you think about how the game com went. Of course, the Piranha Plant round up that number to a nice 70, but I can't help but wonder why Piranha Plant availability is febuary and not sooner. The whole point of Piranha Plant is to encourage people to buy the game as soon as possible, so it would have make more sense to plan its release alongside the game, but Sakurai didn't do so... could it be that the Piranha Plant is a late addition to compensate for the cut character ? And if so, isn't the fact that the Plant will be available so late good evidence that the cut character has been cut very late too, and is therefore very likely to be related to the negociation difficulties with Square-Enix ?
• Secondly, the amount of assist trophies : here again, the number is odd, 59 assist trophies doesn't sound right. It sounds like a 60th trophy could have been cut too, and if so, wouldn't it make sense to assume that that trophy is from the same series as the cut character, a series for which it wouldn't make sense to keep the trophy without the fighter. Could it be that Mallow was planned as an assist trophy alongside Geno being planned as a fighter, and that both were cut together ?

Time will tell if I'm right or not, but I can't help thinking that my Geno theory makes quite a lot of sense, in regard to the information we currently have.

My Guessing Game so far...

List of things I guessed right :

• Base game
  • I guessed that most of the cut characters would return for they probably were highly requested in the ballot (I often talked about the Ice Climbers and Wolf).
  • I guessed that the Inklings would be added, that they would be the very first announcement, and that the girl would be the default skin.
  • I guessed that Daisy would be added as a clone (the concept of echo fighters wasn't known before she was announced).
  • I guessed that Ridley had a shot if Sakurai was willing to compromise about his penchant for perfect representation.
  • I guessed that King K. Rool would be announced in the second direct (I guessed so right after Ridley's announcement).
  • I guessed that Isabelle would not be an echo fighter if she was added (I wasn't sure she would be added however).
  • I guessed that Ken would be added as an echo fighter (but that one was easy).
  • I guessed that the Octolings wouldn't be in the game (the purple and pink inks, the octoling colors, were both already used by the Inklings).
  • I guessed that Waluigi wouldn't be playable (don't mistake the people who are just goofing around for actual fans, his genuine fanbase is smaller than it seems).
  • I guessed that there would be no Monster Hunter fighter, and that Rathalos would stay the only way this series would be represented in the game.
  • I guessed that Shovel Knight would be at best an Assist Trophy (and that's already huge for an indy character).
• Fighter Pass 1
  • I guessed that Banjo & Kazooie would be a likely Microsoft rep.
  • I guessed that a Dragon Quest character would be added, even if I thought Edrick would be the whole fighter rather than an alternate skin.
• Fighter Pass 2
  • I guessed that Steve would be added as a second Microsoft rep.
  • I guessed that Square-Enix would get third fighter in Smash, even if I wouldn't have ever thought Sephiroth would be the one.
  • I guessed that Xenoblade Chronicles 2 would get a rep, even if I though that it would be a Rex & Pyra duo rather and Pyra/Mythra on their own.
  • I guessed that Sora had a chance, even if I didn't think his addition was a given, nor had any idea he was the most requested newcomer.

List of things I guessed wrong :

• Base game
  • I thought that Rayman would finally join this time, he didn't (and he won't).
  • I thought that Spring Man and Ribbon Girl would be added as DLC fighters, first as palette swaps, later as echo fighters (but they won't).
  • I thought that Rex & Pyra would be added as a DLC fighter (and they won't either, at least not in the first fighters pass).
  • I thought that Shadow would be an obvious addition as an echo fighter.
  • I thought that Dixie Kong would be Diddy's echo fighter for there no other reason Diddy lost his tail attack (I still think she may have been cut).
  • I also thought that Chrom being Roy's echo instead of Ike's was good evidence that another character was planned as Ike's echo fighter.
• Fighter Pass 1
  • I thought that Lloyd Irving would be an obvious Bandai-Namco DLC fighter, but he wasn't added.
• Fighter Pass 2
  • I thought that Koei Tecmo would get a rep at some point, but they didn't.
  • I thought that Ubisoft could get a rep at some point, but they didn't.

List of things I didn't see comming :

• Base game
  • I really didn't think that Snake could return, I thought Konami wouldn't agree.
  • I really didn't think that the Pokémon Trainer would return as a single fighter.
  • I really didn't think that Incineroar would be added, and thought that Sakurai would go for a Gen 8 Pokémon during the DLC phase instead.
  • I really didn't think that Sakura would add a Piranha Plant (but so didn't you).
• Fighter Pass 1
  • I really didn't think that Sakurai would add a 8th Fire Emblem character.
• Fighter Pass 2
  • I really didn't think that Min Min would ever be picked as the Arms rep, over Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, or both.
  • I really didn't think that a third party series would ever get a second, non echo, fighter, yet Sephiroth was added.
  • I really didn't think that Bandai-Namco would get a rep in the Fighter Pass 2 after not getting one in the Fighter Pass 1.

The thing I totally derped about :

• I didn't think about Simon being added while I totally should have, it was quite obvious as soon as Snake return was announced.
• I really thought that z92 could have been Geno, but thinking back about it, it was probably Byleth who got delayed to the FP1.