Vergeben leaks

This article or section is incomplete. You can help SmashWiki by expanding or finishing it. The editor who added this tag elaborates: Better ways to cite Vergeben's statements: a lot of them have since been deleted

The Vergeben leaks are a series of insider info from the user Vergeben, a well-known leaker with a history of predicting fighting games, about Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. Having started before E3 2018, Vergeben's leaks were frequently discussed during speculation about the game's roster. Though the veracity of his claims is still debated by some, almost all of them have come to be true, with his only faults so far being that a Square Enix character would be the first one revealed as downloadable content and that content from Minecraft would make an appearance in the base game and later, after the base game released with no such content, as DLC.

Base game leaks

E3 2018 leak

Vergeben leaking Ridley's inclusion.

Vergeben leaking Ice Climbers, Simon and SSB4 cast.

Vergeben leaking Snake.

Vergeben rumouring Minecraft representation.

On March 16, 2018, eight days after the initial reveal of the then-untitled Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Vergeben posted a thread on GameFAQs, claiming that Ridley would be a newcomer and that the new Smash game would be an entirely new game, rather than a port of Smash 4. Exactly two months later, on May 16, Vergeben posted another thread on GameFAQs, claiming he had a reliable source with information on the character roster. Specifically, he said that Ridley and Simon Belmont would be newcomers and that the entire roster from Super Smash Bros. 4 would return with no cuts, with the Ice Climbers and Snake also returning after being cut from SSB4. Vergeben also claimed that the popular Microsoft-owned indie game Minecraft would be represented in some form.

The lack of cuts from SSB4's roster, the return of Snake and the Ice Climbers, and the addition of Ridley were all confirmed during Nintendo’s E3 2018 Direct, which officially unveiled Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. This left Simon Belmont and Minecraft representation Vergeben's only unconfirmed claims. In response to a GameFAQs post asking about Simon, Vergeben replied “Just be patient. There are still things to be revealed before release”, suggesting that Simon would be revealed at a later date.

August Direct leaks

After Nintendo's E3 2018 presentation, Vergeben claimed on Reddit that there were at least “half a dozen newcomers” left to be revealed, but he didn’t know who any of them were aside from Simon. He made another thread on GameFAQs, which has since been deleted, on July 28, reasserting Simon and adding Isabelle to his claims. A fourth GameFAQs thread he posted on August 3 claimed that a Pokémon from Generation VII would be on the roster and that it was not Decidueye, Lycanroc, or Mimikyu. Simon Belmont was officially revealed in the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Direct on August 8. The same Direct also deconfirmed Mimikyu by instead revealing it as a new Poké Ball Pokémon. Additionally, Isabelle was revealed as a newcomer at the end of the September 13 Nintendo Direct, confirming his claims that she would be playable.

November Direct leaks

On August 18, Vergeben posted on a thread stating that Ken from Street Fighter would appear in the game as an Echo Fighter of Ryu. Four days later, Vergeben made another post on a thread, this time stating that a new third-party fighter owned by Square Enix would appear in the game. This led some to believe that Vergeben was simply taking info from the NeoGAF leak, but the next day he claimed in a thread that he did not know anything about the NeoGAF leak, and that it also contradicted his own information since it claimed there would be no new Pokémon rep. He later said that he had heard seven different names for the newcomer and that Square Enix was intentionally sending out multiple names to prevent the real one from leaking.

In another thread by Vergeben he asserted that Incineroar was the Generation VII Pokémon that would appear as a newcomer. He also addressed the popular "Box Theory", which stated that there would only be two more fighters in the base game as the box art for the Special Edition of the game had room for only two more fighters. Though he assured that Incineroar and Ken were in the game, he also noted that his source for the Square Enix newcomer had never been wrong in the past. In the debate surrounding the Grinch leak, Vergeben made a post on October 31, stating that his information suggested that the Grinch Leak was fake, as his information had Isaac as an Assist Trophy rather than a playable character.

On November 1, 2018, the final Nintendo Direct for the game revealed Ken and Incineroar as the last fighters for the base game, as well as revealing Isaac to be an Assist Trophy, confirming Vergeben's earlier claims about them. It was also announced in this Direct that there would be additional fighters as paid DLC, which had the potential to include the Square Enix newcomer and the Minecraft content, the only two remaining unconfirmed claims.

DLC leaks

Pre-Fighters Pass Vol. 1

On September 16, 2018, Vergeben claimed the game would have post-launch content, allowing for his claim of a Square Enix newcomer to still be true in the event that Box Theory was proven correct, which it eventually was by the November 1 Direct.

Vergeben made a post the day after the Fighters Pass was revealed, reiterating that he was confident a Square rep would be added, claiming that they would be the first DLC character. He also reiterated his claim that Minecraft content would be coming in some form. Additionally, he stated that Senjougahara__Hitagi, another leaker he considers reliable, heard that the Minecraft content would be the game's protagonist Steve as a playable character. He also shared that Hitagi's sources claim that there had been talks of a Granblue Fantasy newcomer as DLC, most likely Katalina. Hitagi initially verified the Steve and Katalina claims, but she later retracted the Katalina claim, saying that the "deal" was not related to Smash. On November 21, Hitagi again stated that Steve was definitely coming, but also announced that she had given up on trying to find out about the rest of the characters, as the ones she heard about were starting to look like red herrings, including any Square Enix fighters, thus bringing Vergeben's claims into doubt as well.

On November 24, another insider by the name of Ryce stated that Vergeben was most likely misled about Steve being a DLC character since this claim was first made long before the DLC choices were set in stone. Vergeben made a post agreeing with Ryce and stating that he heard that Minecraft would still be represented with a boss battle, despite acknowledging the fact that nobody had found any references to Minecraft in the datamine of the full game. However, this did not contradict Hitagi's claim of Steve being DLC.

Fighters Pass Vol. 1 leaks

At The Game Awards 2018, Joker from Atlus and Sega's Persona 5 was revealed to be the first DLC fighter, directly contradicting Vergeben's claim that the first DLC character would be a Square Enix rep. Vergeben later justified this discrepancy by claiming that Joker had been moved up to the top of the release schedule at the last minute.

On December 30th, 2018, Vergeben made a post clarifying that the Square Enix newcomer was most likely a Dragon Quest character, namely Erdrick, Luminary, or Slime. This correlated with a separate alleged leak originating from 5channel, claiming that Erdrick was the Square Enix rep, and would feature the Luminary as an alternate costume, while the Slime would appear on a Dragon Quest stage. He later asserted on April 25, 2019 that Erdrick was definitely in the Fighters Pass. He also reiterated that Minecraft content of some kind was being added to the game, but that it did not necessarily mean that Steve would be playable.

On June 6th, 2019, Vergeben claimed that Banjo & Kazooie had a 99% chance of being part of the Fighters Pass. He also once again reaffirmed his claim that Minecraft would be represented through DLC, but also that he was unsure if Steve would be playable. Banjo & Kazooie were confirmed in the E3 2019 Direct along with Erdrick, albeit as a skin for Hero, something Vergeben stated he took great joy in as he was not informed of multiple Dragon Quest skins, and that this also explained why he kept hearing Luminary along with Erdrick. He later dismissed a popular 4chan rumor that the 4th fighter in the Fighters Pass would be a female character with a "mecha".

On September 1st, 2019, Vergeben claimed that a playable character owned by SNK Corporation would appear in the game and that he had heard one potential name of the character. A day later, he made a thread with a gif of Terry Bogard from Fatal Fury and later claimed that Terry would be a DLC character. Terry was later confirmed in a Nintendo Direct on September 4th, 2019.

Following the reveal and release of Terry, Vergeben dismissed several rumors about the identity of the last character in the Fighters Pass:

• He claimed on October 24 that the final fighter would not be Ryu Hayabusa from the Ninja Gaiden series, though he claimed that there was some possibility for Ryu to be added in later DLC outside of the first Fighters Pass.
• He later claimed that the final character in Fighters Pass Volume 1 would not be:
  • Scorpion from the Mortal Kombat series on November 4.
  • Geno from Super Mario RPG or Doomguy from the Doom series on November 10.
  • Gordon Freeman from the Half-Life series on November 25.
  • A character owned by Nippon Ichi Software on November 26.
  • A character owned by either Ubisoft or Nihon Falcom on November 27.
  • A character owned by either Bandai Namco or Level-5 on November 30.
• He posted on December 6 that the final character was definitely not owned by Capcom, Sega, Konami, Arc System Works, Spike Chunsoft, Marvelous Inc., Epic Games, Touhou Project, Bethesda, Koei Tecmo, Activision, Blizzard Entertainment, or Nintendo, most likely not from Microsoft or Square Enix, and definitely not a character already in the game as an Assist Trophy or Spirit.

On December 7th, Vergeben stated that he would try to check if the final Fighters Pass Vol. 1 character was owned by HAL Laboratory, Game Freak, Intelligent Systems, SNK, or Atlus. A different post he made later the same day clarified that the list of companies he had posted the day before was incorrect, and that only the specific characters he listed next to the companies' names were deconfirmed. The characters he deconfirmed in this post were Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo, Sakura from Sakura Wars, Crash Bandicoot, Tracer from Overwatch, Reimu Hakurei from Touhou, and Kat from Gravity Rush.

On December 8th, he made another post claiming that the final character was not Sora from Kingdom Hearts, Sol Badguy from Guilty Gear, Ragna from BlazBlue, Billy or Jimmy Lee from Double Dragon, Dante from Devil May Cry, Phoenix Wright, Sir Arthur from Ghosts 'n' Goblins, Amaterasu from Okami, the Monster Hunter, Sam Porter Bridges from Death Stranding, Geralt of Rivia from The Witcher, Monokuma from Danganronpa, Kratos from God of War, or Master Chief from Halo. In the same post, Vergeben noted the confusion over his source's uncertainty about it being KOS-MOS from Xenosaga, since they had denied that the character was owned by Bandai Namco: he said this was likely because his source had mistaken KOS-MOS for a Monolith Soft character. However, the 4chan post that suggested KOS-MOS, claiming she would be revealed during The Game Awards 2019, was later debunked as The Game Awards aired with no new announcements regarding Smash.

On December 16th, Vergeben claimed that the final Fighters Pass character was not Reiji Arisu and Xiaomu from Namco x Capcom and the Project x Zone series or Morrigan from Darkstalkers.

Shortly before the presentation that revealed Byleth on January 16, 2020, Vergeben claimed that the final character was not KOS-MOS and reiterated his claims that it was not Dante, Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, Monster Hunter, Sir Arthur, Morrigan, or Leon Kennedy from Resident Evil. During the presentation itself, Vergeben posted that his source had told him it was Byleth shortly before the presentation began and stated that the Mii Fighter costumes would be Altair, Cuphead, a Rabbid hat, and two Mega Man outfits. He later provided a timestamped screenshot showing that this message arrived fifteen minutes before the presentation began. Although this screenshot could easily have been edited, his initial post came before the point in the presentation where the Mii Fighter costumes were revealed, which would indicate the screenshot and therefore his source's information was true.

Reception

Vergeben denying that he made any comment on the SNK fighter rumor.

Leading up to the release of Ultimate, Vergeben was largely derided for having previously shared supposed leaks for other games that were later proven false. His defenders, then in the minority, argued that he had nearly an equal amount of leaks that had come true and that the reason for his inaccuracy was that he himself is not an insider, but instead has connections to insiders and sometimes hears rumors from unreliable sources. All information that reaches the public does not come from Vergeben directly, but rather disseminates similarly to a game of telephone, with his sources going to him and him going to the community. As a result, several details are often misinterpreted or lost in translation before fans can even discuss them.

Similar to the Gematsu leaks for Smash 4 during E3 2013, the confirmation during E3 2018 of several of Vergeben's major claims sparked a large amount of discussion surrounding them and their authenticity. Believers of the leak cited Vergeben's history of accurate insider info, while ascribing any potential and future falsehoods to the aforementioned fact that Vergeben himself is not an insider. Detractors were wary of Vergeben's potential to be a repeat of the Gematsu Leaks, with accurate information at the start but less notable or outright wrong information towards the end. Another camp accused him of stealing information from other leaks, though many of the purported examples were, in fact, copycats of Vergeben.

The two predictions that gave Vergeben most of his credibility were Isabelle and Incineroar, for very few other rumors had suggested their inclusions. Incineroar, in particular, was largely exclusive to Vergeben: many credited him with popularizing its inclusion, with most other leakers suggesting Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, Tapu Koko, or Zeraora as the new Pokémon rep. Furthermore, a large portion of the community had chosen to believe the Grinch Leak despite Vergeben adamantly denying it, and thus he was vindicated when the Grinch Leak was debunked by Incineroar's reveal.

His claim that the first DLC character would be a Square Enix rep, the first claim of his to have been proven incorrect, provoked skepticism about the rest of his leaks. Vergeben's claim that Joker had been moved up the schedule at the last minute was largely accepted, in particular due to confirmation that Masahiro Sakurai had been requested by Nintendo last minute to prepare a trailer for Joker's reveal, leaving him unable to demonstrate any gameplay. Doubters pointed out that the leak by definition was not infallible due to making a completely wrong assumption, though this argument was dismissed as a fallacy of composition that did not degrade any of Vergeben's other claims.

Though his claims for Hero and Terry came to be true, doubt was cast upon them due to several other rumors making similar claims. For Hero, multiple posts including the aforementioned 5channel leak suggested that Dragon Quest representation would come in some form, well before Vergeben starting making similar claims himself. He had also used the name "Erdrick" instead of "Luminary" like these rumors, despite the Luminary being the default costume for Hero and Vergeben mentioning several times that he kept hearing the name from his sources. For Terry, the webpage that first triggered speculation about an SNK fighter came before Vergeben made any claims about an SNK character.

Vergeben's claims leading up to the reveal of the final Fighters Pass Volume 1 character drew large amounts of skepticism and criticism, as he shot down a vast majority of popularly speculated characters without outright stating who the character would actually be. In addition to this, the fact that the source was uncertain about KOS-MOS, a Bandai Namco character, despite the source apparently debunking a Bandai Namco rep beforehand, drew more skepticism. Criticism increased after Vergeben walked back several of his deconfirmations on December 7, 2019; Vergeben justified this by stating that he had misunderstood his source, but many refused to accept this explanation. After The Game Awards passed without an announcement, many claimed that this definitively proved Vergeben was wrong, despite the original claim for a TGA announcement not coming from him. He also garnered much criticism when he claimed to have been told the character was Byleth fifteen minutes before the presentation but did not reveal this until after the presentation began; however, his accuracy in predicting the Mii Fighter costumes that had not yet been revealed in the presentation seem to suggest that he may have had inside information after all. In spite of this, the fact that no Minecraft content of any kind came in the base game or with any of the Fighters Pass characters or their accompanying waves of Mii outfits led to the general consensus that Vergeben was wrong about it, as even if Minecraft content were to come in the future, Vergeben had made the claim so long ago that it would not be at all relevant to DLC after the first Fighters Pass.

Although most agree that Vergeben must have had at least some legitimate insider information, some deniers continue to insist that Vergeben stole all of his information from other leaks or point to Vergeben's only two complete falsehoods (Minecraft representation as well as a Square Enix rep being the first DLC character) as evidence for his claims being fake or even lucky guesses. Ultimately, Vergeben has cemented himself as a generally reliable source of information, but he is still prone to mistakes in the event he believes an unreliable source, misunderstands a report, or his sources fall for false information.

Verdict

Proven

At present, the following are the claims made by Vergeben that have been confirmed to be true:

• Ridley, Simon, Isabelle, Incineroar, and Ken would appear as newcomers, with Ken appearing as an Echo Fighter of Ryu.
• The entire roster of Super Smash Bros. 4 would return, as well as Snake and the Ice Climbers returning after being cut in Smash 4.
• "Over half a dozen" newcomers would appear in the base game (including Echo Fighters, there were 11).
• Decidueye, Lycanroc, Mimikyu, and Isaac would not be playable, with Issac appearing instead as an Assist Trophy.
• The game would receive downloadable content after it released.
• Banjo & Kazooie and either Luminary or Erdrick (Luminary and Erdrick both being present under the banner of Hero) would be part of the Fighters Pass Vol. 1.
• Terry would appear as the fourth character in the Fighters Pass Vol. 1.
• The final fighter in Fighters Pass Vol. 1 would not be any of the following:
  • Ryu Hayabusa from the Ninja Gaiden series
  • Scorpion from the Mortal Kombat series
  • Geno from Super Mario RPG
  • Doomguy from the Doom series
  • Gordon Freeman from the Half-Life series
  • Arle Nadja from the Puyo Puyo series
  • Sakura Shinguji from the Sakura Wars series
  • Crash Bandicoot from the Crash Bandicoot series
  • Tracer from the Overwatch series
  • Reimu Hakurei from the Touhou Project series
  • Kat from the Gravity Rush series
  • Sora from the Kingdom Hearts series
  • Sol Badguy from the Guilty Gear series
  • Ragna the Bloodedge from the BlazBlue series
  • Jimmy or Billy from the Double Dragon series
  • Dante from the Devil May Cry series
  • Leon Scott Kennedy from the Resident Evil series
  • Phoenix Wright from the Ace Attorney series
  • Amaterasu from Okami series
  • Sir Arthur from Ghosts 'n Goblins series
  • Hunter from the Monster Hunter series
  • Sam Porter Bridges from Death Stranding
  • Geralt of Rivia from The Witcher series
  • Monokuma from Danganronpa series
  • Kratos from the God of War series
  • Reiji Arisu or Xiaomu from the Namco X Capcom
  • Morrigan Aensland from the Darkstalkers series
  • KOS-MOS from the Xenosaga series
  • Master Chief from the Halo series
  • Any character from Ubisoft, Bandai Namco, Level-5, Nippon Ichi Software, or Nihon Falcom.
• The Mii Fighter costumes releasing with Byleth would be Altair, Cuphead, a Rabbid hat, and two Mega Man costumes.

Disproven

At present, the following are the claims made by Vergeben that have been proven wrong:

• Some form of Minecraft representation would appear in the base game.
• Some form of Minecraft representation, as either a boss battle or Steve as a playable character, would be added during Fighters Pass Vol. 1.
• The first character in Fighters Pass Vol. 1 would be a Square Enix rep.